What's ESPN's FPI's Game-by-Game Predictions for Virginia Tech After Week 9 Win Over Cal?

The Hokies sit at 3-5 with a quartet of contests remaining.

Oct 24, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech coach Phillip Montgomery after the game against California. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 10, here's some quick tidbits on how Virginia Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 9 of the College Football season📈📉https://t.co/xCBW0RJvd2 pic.twitter.com/0tPAh787Su

— On3 (@On3sports) October 26, 2025

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 69 on the FPI, one spot above its No. 70 ranking entering its Cal contest. The Hokies' projected win-loss record now sits at 3.8-8.2 and the squad still ranks No. 12 in the ACC. At the time of writing, which is Wednesday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 2.4% odds of claiming at least six wins and 0% odds of winning the ACC title or qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

According to FPI, Virginia Tech's remaining strength of schedule ranks at No. 27, third-highest in the ACC, behind only Pittsburgh (No. 16) and Syracuse (No. 21).

Tech's Week 9 victory came over Cal, who ranks at No. 85 in the FPI.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Tech's current record: 3-5, 2-2 ACC
Wins: Wofford (FCS) (38-6), NC State (23-21), California (42-34, 2OT)
Losses: then-No. 13 South Carolina (24-11), Vanderbilt (44-20), Old Dominion (45-26), Wake Forest (30-23), then-No. 13 Georgia Tech (35-20)

Game 9, vs. No. 16 Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 25.7% chance to win (down 3.9%)

Louisville’s chances against Virginia Tech have only strengthened following back-to-back wins over Miami and Boston College in Weeks 8 and 9. The Cardinals have carried their momentum through the heart of the season, now sitting firmly in the ACC title conversation. Jeff Brohm’s squad has shown impressive consistency, pairing an efficient, balanced offense with one of the league’s most disciplined defenses. Louisville is a candidate to make it to the ACC title game in early December and triumphing over the Hokies is a contest that will be paramount for the Cardinals' hopes of fighting for the ACC championship — and possibly a berth to the College Football Playoff (CFP), should they win.

FPI record: 3-6, 2-3 ACC

Game 10, at Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 19.3% chance to win (up 3%)

Florida State has been searching for stability, even more so after falling to Stanford, 20-13. Despite recent struggles, Boston College transfer Tommy Castellanos has flashed the playmaking ability that the Hokies have yet to consistently replicate on offense.

Though the odds may be close than FPI suggests, the Hokies remain clear underdogs in this Tallahassee tilt.

FPI record: 3-7, 2-4 ACC

Game 11, vs. No. 10 Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 10.9% chance to win (up 0.9%)

After dropping out of the top five in the AP poll following a 24-21 loss to Louisville, Miami bounced back in dominant fashion, rolling past Stanford 42-7. Miami signal-caller Carson Beck's interception numbers ballooned to seven after a four-pick performance against the Cardinals; however, the quarterback still remains one of the ACC's most potent pocket passers, even if his name isn't as high in Heisman watch lists.

FPI record: 3-8, 2-5 ACC

Game 12, at No. 15 Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 22.8% chance to win (up 4.9%)

With bowl eligibility already secured, the Cavaliers have emerged as a potential option to fight for the ACC title game. As a result, Virginia Tech enters this matchup at a clear disadvantage, with the latest FPI projections still forecasting a fourth consecutive loss for the Hokies. The model still projects a 3-9 final record for Tech, with the last four contests all projected defeats.

FPI record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC