Why Virginia Tech's FPI Rating Can Be Proven Right or Wrong

Here's why the projection could prove either spot-on or off-base by season's end.

Virginia Tech Athletics

Virginia Tech football ranked No. 33 on ESPN's preseason projections for its Football Power Index, "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season."

Here's more of a quick explainer on how the system works:

"FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

To me, No. 33 feels like a number that feels appropriate given where the Hokies stand entering James Franklin's first season in Blacksburg. It reflects a team with legitimate upside but also enough uncertainty to keep expectations in check. Virginia Trech appears to be a team that can claim seven to eight wins in Year 1 under Franklni, though if any more are to arrive, it will largely depend on the skill level of the ACC at-large.

For Virginia Tech, No. 33 essentially places the Hokies in the upper half of the Power Four but outside the group expected to seriously contend for the College Football Playoff. Considering the program is coming off a disappointing 2025 campaign and breaking in a new coaching staff, that projection makes sense on the surface.

There are, however, several ways the Hokies could outperform that ranking and inch into the top-30.

The biggest is quarterback play. If Ethan Grunkemeyer quickly develops into one of the ACC's better quarterbacks, Virginia Tech's offense could take a significant leap. The Hokies have surrounded him with capable skill talent, including Luke Reynolds and Ayden Greene, while expecting a more balanced rushing attack behind Jeffrey Overton Jr. A productive offense would immediately raise the team's ceiling in several toss-up games. Grunkemeyer threw for 1,339 passing yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions as a redshirt freshman for Penn State in 2025; Hawkins rushed for 749 yards as the starter, while Overton logged 146 rushing yards in the last four games; Reynolds totaled 257 receiving yards last year as a sophomore at Penn State, and Greene amassed 516 receiving yards in 2025.

On the defensive end, if the front seven creates more pressure and the secondary capitalizes on mistakes, Virginia Tech could flip several one-possession contests in its favor.

Winning the games they're expected to win while stealing one or two against higher-ranked opponents would likely produce an eight- or nine-win regular season.

On the other hand, there are clear reasons why the model could prove optimistic. The Hokies travel to Berkeley, Calif., Dallas, Texas, Miami Gardens, Fla. and Clemson, S.C. — and all of those travels come in the final seven games of the season.

If Franklin's first team quickly embraces its new identity, receives steady quarterback play and improves defensively, the Hokies could finish inside the top 25 if they produces a nine-win season. If inconsistency and growing pains define the season instead, a finish far outside where FPI projects would be understandable.

Virginia Tech's 2026 season starts against VMI on Saturday, Sept. 5, at 7:30 p.m. ET. The game will be carried on the ACC Network, and it will be the first meeting between the Hokies and Keydets since 1984.