Way-Too-Early Virginia Tech Football Preview and Prediction: Week 2 vs. Vanderbilt
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In the second part of our “Way-Too-Early” series on 2025 Virginia Tech football, the Hokies (0-1 “Way-Too-Early”) return to Lane Stadium after what we both predicted to be an opening-week loss to South Carolina.
Following the SEC contest in Atlanta, the Hokies have another Southeastern Conference foe — the Vanderbilt Commodores —awaiting them at home, marking a tough slate of back-to-back games against teams in college football’s strongest conference.
The last time the Hokies were matched up against two SEC schools in the same season? 2016, led by quarterback Jerod Evans. Tech split the two-gamer against the conference, losing to Tennessee in September before marching back to end the 2016 campaign with a Belk Bowl victory over Arkansas.
In the Hokies’ first home contest of the 2025 campaign, here’s how we believe the offense and defense stack up against Vanderbilt on the opposing side of the line of scrimmage. At the end, we’ll offer up our predictions for who we think wins the Sep. 6 clash in the Terror Dome and what the final score will be.
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense:
Last season, Tech starter Kyron Drones compiled a season-high 322 yards against the Commodores. However, that also came alongside just 34 yards from the Hokies’ primary tailback, Bhayshul Tuten. Given that Tuten is now gone and Tech is more likely to rely on a by-committee style at the RB slot, passing will be at a premium in the Hokies’ first 2025 game inside Lane Stadium.
Drones and his offense will have a new Vanderbilt defensive coordinator to deal with this season; the Commodores announced the promotion of associate defensive coordinator and secondary coach Steve Gregory to the defensive coordinator position.
Previously, Gregory spent seven seasons in the NFL as a defensive backs coach for the Detroit Lions (2018-2020) and the Miami Dolphins (2021-2022). Gregory enters Nashville looking to add depth to Vanderbilt's defense, which is primarily known for its gritty and rugged rush defense that is tough to penetrate.
With the Commodores' Week 1 contest slated against FCS squad Charleston Southern, the Hokies should prove to be a worthy opening test for Gregory and his squad. One name to watch as a possible breakout candidate for Tech is junior Ayden Greene. Greene featured in all 13 of the Hokies’ games last season, starting twice and catching 19 passes for 268 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Something 2 prove🗣️@Triumph_NIL @HokiesFB pic.twitter.com/IKQTUpqHR8
— AYDEN GREENE! (@ayden_greene11) December 21, 2024
After spending much of last season waiting in the wings as a second-team option, Greene enters 2025 with substantial reps behind the scenes. Two years spent learning the offense, adjusting to the speed of the game, and watching veterans handle WR1 duties should serve him well as he steps into the spotlight.
Now, the stage is set for Greene to take the next step — and we think he will. We predict that he will compile around 90 receiving yards and a score against Vanderbilt, setting him up nicely to put up big numbers in a pair of non-conference games against Old Dominion and Wofford.
With the departures of Stephen Gosnell, Da’Quan Felton, and Ali Jennings, all off to the NFL on undrafted free-agent contracts, the 2024 wide receiver core is gone, aside from Greene, who now assumes the WR1 role.
Greene’s best game last season came in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Jan. 3, where he notched six catches on the day and tallied 115 yards, including a 67-yard dash to the three-yard line.
Winning the turnover battle is always crucial, but it becomes even more important against a team like Vanderbilt, one that rarely gives the ball away. With Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia under center in 2024, the Commodores averaged just 0.54 turnovers per game, letting few possessions slip away and leaving little margin for error.
With Tech’s defense likely to face limited early opportunities to control possession, the spotlight shifts squarely onto quarterback Kyron Drones. He’ll need to match — or exceed — the offensive output on the other side to keep the Hokies in contention. But beyond the immediate challenge, a more pressing question looms: just how high is the Hokies’ ceiling with Drones at the helm?
Coming off last game against the intimidating Gamecocks defense, Drones' response against Vanderbilt will not only be crucial for this present matchup, but the final 10 games to end the season. Beyond the defense, which we’ll cover momentarily, this is the true make-or-break question.
If Drones’ performance is akin to his game against Rutgers last year, then it’s safe to say that the path to victory will be steep for the Hokies. On the flip side, if he plays to the level he did against Miami or, ironically enough, Vanderbilt, then Tech should have enough to claim win No. 1 in our hypothetical 2025 season.
Virginia Tech Defense vs. Vanderbilt Offense:
Though Vanderbilt’s offense wasn’t flashy last season, it was efficient and one that very rarely made mistakes. In 2024, Pavia surrendered the lowest interceptions in the country, tossing just four picks. In addition, the team lost the fewest turnovers in the FBS (seven), lost the fifth-fewest fumbles (three), and were third in red-zone scoring rate (93.3%). Simply put, this team is effective and one that operates as an unflashy, fundamental team.
One reason why Pavia surrendered only four picks? He was busy running, too. The 24-year-old, who recently was granted another year of eligibility by the NCAA after winning a lawsuit against the governing body, compiled 801 yards on the ground, a school record at the quarterback position.
One hundred and four of those yards came against the Hokies in last year’s season opener, achieved on 26 carries. Both of those were season-highs and given that the Hokies’ defense is unproven, both in terms of personnel and coaching, it’s reasonable to expect him to go back to the well. Pavia is a true dual-threat quarterback, one capable of dealing severe damage in the air and on the ground.
In October of last year, Pavia engineered one of the most stunning wins in Vanderbilt history, guiding the Commodores past top-ranked Alabama for the program’s first-ever victory over a top-5 opponent. That afternoon in Nashville, Pavia went 16-for-20 for 252 yards and a pair of passing touchdowns alongside 56 yards on the ground.
The good news for the Hokies is that last season, Pavia posed a real scouting challenge: a quarterback with power in both his arm and legs, limited available film, and few tendencies established against Power Four competition. Tech Sideline’s Brandon Patterson described the Vanderbilt offense’s style of play in last year's preview as “Lunch Pail Defense kryptonite”.
Though Pavia is still elusive on the gridiron, he isn’t as much from the tape anymore. Instead of having information derived from Pavia competing against schools in the “Group of 5” tier, the Hokies now have a year of Pavia facing off against SEC foes to work with in the film room.
Though Virginia Tech’s defense’s weak spot has typically been a mobile quarterback that can throw deep, more tape on Pavia takes away one end of what made 2024 Vanderbilt a problem for the Hokies.
A pivotal factor in limiting Pavia will be the Hokies' front seven. The rushing attack must not only be effective, but also be calculated and meticulous in stopping Pavia. Rushing in uncoordinated can often spoil a play, a mobile quarterback’s dream scenario. The Hokies lost two key defensive front pieces to the draft: Antwaun Powell-Ryland (Eagles) and Aeneas Peebles (Ravens).
Forcing Pavia to move is a good thing if the Hokies do so with intention. Not doing so allows Pavia to rack up yardage on the ground. Therefore, forcing Pavia into a panic-driven throw or cornering him into a sack or fumble should be the ideal result the Hokies are looking for to end defensive stands early and get the ball back into Drones’ hands.
Conclusion:
The silver lining for either team walking away with a victory will be the duel between the quarterbacks — Drones and Pavia, similar to last season’s overtime heartbreaker.
Opening the season with back-to-back losses is a difficult hole for any team to climb out of, especially one still trying to establish its identity with new coordinators on both sides of the field. Securing that elusive first win, then, would serve as a critical momentum shift — one that should carry the Hokies into the softer portion of their non-conference schedule, with Old Dominion and Wofford on the horizon.
We both believe Virginia Tech gets it done in Week 2, avenging last season’s opening-week stumble against the Commodores and evening the record at 1-1 heading into a more manageable portion of the out-of-conference slate.
Virginia Tech’s game against the Commodores comes on Sep. 6 at 7:30 p.m.; fans can tune into the game on the ACC Network.
Thomas’ Prediction: Virginia Tech 42, Vanderbilt 31
Kaden’s Prediction: Virginia Tech 35, Vanderbilt 31
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Thomas is a sophomore at Virginia Tech majoring in multimedia journalism with a minor in creative writing. He currently works with Collegiate Times, Virginia Tech's student-run newspaper, as a staff writer for its sports section. In addition, he also writes for 3304 Sports as a staff writer and on-air talent, as well as Aspiring Journalists at Virginia Tech as a curator. You can find him on X: @thomashughes_05.
Follow thomashughes_05-c647d0570ffad1263447dc3c4ea97f33.jpg "Kaden Reinhard")
Kaden Reinhard started his sports media career covering sports for his local alma mater, the Floyd County Buffaloes, through Citizens Telephone Coop. Has commentated for football, basketball, baseball, and softball. Began writing 3304 Sports in the Spring of 2025, covering lacrosse and softball. Currently a Junior at Virginia Tech, majoring in sports media and analytics.
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