Virginia vs North Carolina: Preview and Prediction - ACC Basketball Pick of the Day
Two of the ACC's best will be squaring off Tuesday night in Charlottesville.
Gameday Info
Tipoff: 9:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Virginia -4.5
Total: 136.5
READ: ACC Basketball AP Poll Update
North Carolina Team Preview
Record: 11-5 (3-2)
KenPom Ranking: 21st (13th Offense, 70th Defense)
Recent Games: 81-64 W vs Notre Dame, 88-79 W vs Wake Forest, 76-74 L at Pittsburgh
Leading Scorers:
Sr. F Armando Bacot (18.8 ppg, 11.2 reb, 1.3 blk)
Jr. G Caleb Love (16.9 ppg, 3.3 ast, 1.3 stl)
Jr. G RJ Davis (16.4 ppg, 5.3 reb, 3.4 ast)
After a rocky start to the year, Carolina has picked up some steam lately and has only lost once in the past month. They check in at No. 1 in the latest Deacons Daily ACC Power Rankings. The Tar Heels are still unranked in the AP Poll, so this matchup in Charlottesville is huge for them to solidify their position nationally, as well as in the ACC.
Pete Nance got injured at the beginning of the Wake Forest matchup, and missed the Notre Dame game, but this could have been a blessing in disguise, as Seth Trimble and Puff Johnson have gained confidence and played well in their increased roles. Hubert Davis hasn't developed a ton of trust in his bench, but stretching the rotation to a comfortable eight guys would be very beneficial for this team.
Offensively, this team is quite explosive, evidenced by the high KenPom rating. Led by potential ACC Player of the Year Armando Bacot, this team plays a nice inside out game, with guards RJ Davis and Caleb Love providing scoring from the perimeter. When this team has struggled, it's been because these two lead guards are being too aggressive, or just not hitting shots (Davis and Love combined to shoot 24.5% from 3 in the four game losing streak earlier this season). Bacot has dominated the inside of the arc for this team all year, as he leads the ACC in points per game, and in FG% for players averaging 10+ shot attempts per game. Bacot also gets to the free throw line more than any other player in the ACC. He's already taken 122 free throws this season.
This team is not nearly as potent on the defensive end. Leaky Black is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, but the rest of the starting five is mediocre at best. The Heels rank 10th in the ACC in steals per game (6.2) and 11th in turnovers forced per game (11.7). This Carolina defense has allowed big games to Pittsburgh guard Jamarius Burton (31 points) and Alabama's Mark Sears (24 points) earlier this year. They also struggled with athletic big men in Virginia Tech's Justyn Mutts (27 points, 11 rebounds) and Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis (21 points, 10 rebounds).
Nance is a game-time decision for this one, and while his availability doesn't drastically change this team's outlook, he's still a starter with plenty of experience. Although the Heels have replaced him well in the past two games, his rebounding and shooting will assuredly provide a boost.
READ: ACC Basketball Power Rankings
Virginia Team Overview
Record: 11-3 (3-2)
KenPom Ranking: 14th (23rd Offense, 21st Defense)
Recent Games: 73-66 W vs Syracuse, 68-65 L at Pittsburgh, 74-56 W at Georgia Tech
Leading Scorers:
Sr. G Kihei Clark (11.4 ppg, 6.3 ast, 1.4 stl)
Sr. G Armaan Franklin (11.4 ppg, 1.1 stl, 41.4% 3P)
Sr. F Jayden Gardner (11.3 ppg, 5.3 ren, 52.1 FG%)
Virginia sits atop the ACC according to the most recent AP Poll, which ranks them No. 13 in the country, tops in the ACC teams. Although Tony Bennett's has lost three of its last six games, the vibes are still good in Charlottesville. The early season wins against Baylor and Illinois don’t look as good as they did earlier in the year, but the Cavaliers are still a frontrunner for the ACC Title. Defending home court here against one of the best teams in the league would be an important statement to make.
Bennett continues to employ an extremely slow offensive attack (3rd slowest pace in the nation), but a very efficient and balanced one. All five starters average between 9-12 points per game. This team is still shooting the three ball remarkably well on the year (38%) and the starting backcourt of Reece Beekman, Kihei Clark, and Armaan Franklin are shooting a combined 43.2%. For the first time in his collegiate career, Beekman has made multiple deep balls in three straight games entering this one.
This veteran squad is also first in the ACC in assist to turnover ratio (1.66:1), which comes as no surprise in Bennett's offense. Clark of course is the main facilitator, and holds an impressive 2.84:1 ratio.
Defensively, the Cavaliers aren't nationally elite as they have been in recent years, but the packline is still working very well. Starting big man Kadin Shedrick averages 1.9 blocks per game, and Beekman grades out as the best defender in the ACC on EvanMiya. This group is very connected on the defensive end, and usually does a great job of locking in on the opposition's star players.
The Pick: Virginia -4.5
This is certainly a tough game to pick, but the play here is to take the Cavaliers on the home floor. On one hand, I like Virginia’s ability to neutralize Bacot with Shedrick on him, and Reece Beekman can force Caleb Love into tough shots. Pete Nance’s is a game time decision, and it seems more likely that he will go than not.
I was burned by Virginia earlier this season, when I picked them to win against Miami. Isaiah Wong went for 24 and the Cavaliers didn't have enough offense to keep up in Coral Gables. This made me realize they’re susceptible to teams with isolation shotmakers, which the Tar Heels do have.
However, I trust Bennett’s squad to cover by a hair in this one. Bacot is so difficult to stop, but I'll take Virginia's defensive prospects against him over anybody else in the ACC. Plus, I comfortable picking against a team so reliant on jump shooting on the road. If Virginia can keep Bacot under 20, and Davis and Love have a hard time getting going from deep, UNC will have a very difficult time scoring 70. With the home crowd behind them, I'm confident that Virginia can control this pace of this game and find enough offense to win and cover.
Score Prediction: Virginia 68, North Carolina 61
Jack Smartt's ATS Record: 4-2
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