Wake Forest vs LSU: Preview and Prediction
Wake Forest and LSU will square off at State Farm Arena in Atlanta on Saturday afternoon as part of Holiday Hoopsgiving. Read below for a preview of the game.
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Spread: LSU -1.5
Total: 142
READ: Wake Forest vs LSU: Ten facts to know
LSU Team Overview:
Record: 7-1
KenPom Ranking: 59th (70th Off, 52nd Def)
The Tigers are 7-1, but their extremely weak non-conference strength of schedule (340th in the NCAA according to KenPom) indicates that they have not really been tested yet. Their one matchup against a team in the top 125 of KP was a 61-59 loss against Kansas State. The Tigers are coming off back-to-back close wins at home, a 78-75 defeat of Wofford (KP 139) and a 63-59 victory over UT Arlington (KP 278)
A No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament last year, head coach Will Wade’s termination led to a mass exodus of the roster. Only one of the top nine scorers from last season is still on the roster — junior forward Mwani Wilkinson. New coach Matt McMahon was able to retain two other players from the 2021-22 Tigers, including Adam Miller, who missed all of last season with an ACL tear. McMahon also brought in three of his key players last season from Murray State. McMahon took the Racers to a 31-3 finish last season and a Round of 32 appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
Picked to finish 8th in the SEC preseason poll, the Tigers have the talent to compete in their league even with their lack of continuity. Miller, a redshirt sophomore guard who played his freshman year at Illinois, is an athletic sharp-shooting lefty. Miller is averaging at team high 16.9 points per game, and connects on an average of 3.1-7.9 (39.7%) attempts from three-point land.
Right behind him in the scoring category is 6’10” KJ Williams, a super senior who played his first four years under McMahon at Murray State. The forward scored over 1600 points at Murray, and has transitioned seamlessly into his new uniform. He’s averaging 16.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.
The other key players who followed McMahon to Baton Rouge are guards Justice Hill and Trae Hannibal. Hill is a quick 6’0” point guard who averages 9.4 points and 4.0 assists per game. He has struggled to shoot the ball early on this season, only making 33.8% of his attempts from the field. Hannibal is the sixth man for LSU, and although he averages less than five points per game, he’s an explosive athlete who impacts the game in a variety of ways.
READ: Behind Enemy Lines: Q&A with LSU Basketball Writer
Wake Forest Overview
Record: 7-2
KenPom Ranking: 75th (61st Off, 93rd Def)
It’s been an interesting start to the season in year three for Steve Forbes in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons are coming off a 77-57 loss at Clemson on Dec. 2, a game in which they held a seven-point lead at halftime. Prior to getting whooped in their ACC opener, Wake secured a marquee victory in Madison against Wisconsin, 78-75. Florida transfer Tyree Appleby exploded in the win, putting up 32 points, 20 of which came in the second half. But against Clemson, he came up well short of his season scoring average (18.3 ppg), only scoring eight points on 3-13 shooting.
Appleby has been the engine for this team so far, but other guys have had their moments as well. Sophomore guard Cameron Hildreth has seen his usage increase significantly since his freshman year. HIs averages are up to 12.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, and 3.2 apg. Senior guard Daivien Williamson (10.9 ppg) missed two games due to injury in late November, and came off of the bench in two games since returning to action.
Junior guard Damari Monsanto (9.6 ppg) has cooled off a bit after a scorching hot stretch in the middle of November. He’ll look to get back on track after shooting a combined 8-25 from the field (32%) in his last two outings.
READ: Wake Forest vs LSU series history
Why LSU Will Cover
While LSU came up short in their one matchup against a power conference opponent, they held Kansas State to 61 total points. If the Tigers weren’t ice cold and able to score more than the 18 points they put up in the second half, they would’ve won easily.
Miller and Williams are a strong duo, and Williams especially could be a nightmare for Wake to guard. His shooting touch from outside (40% 3PT) as well as his ability to score down low make him a versatile player that teams struggle to contain. The super senior is savvy and dynamic and can take advantage of the Demon Deacons’ young frontcourt.
Wake Forest doesn’t have the length or connectivity on the defensive end of the floor to shut down an athletic side like LSU. Wake’s guards have been sloppy with the ball at times this season, and the Tigers thrive in transition. If LSU can get out and run, and if somebody other than Miller can make some triples, the Tigers should be able to outscore the Deacs on Saturday afternoon.
Why Wake Forest Will Cover
It’s always a good idea to back a well-coached team who got embarrassed in their last outing, especially when they have had plenty of time to rest. After blowing a late lead to Loyola Marymount, which led to an overtime loss back on Nov. 20, the Demon Deacons put together back-to-back monster blowouts averaging over 100 points per game, and scored 78 points against one of the nation’s elite defenses days later. This coaching staff knows how to maximize their group, and the week of prep time should have this team locked in and ready to go.
Appleby has been playing at an All-ACC level, and his poor performance against Clemson should lead to him being very focused heading into this matchup. Williamson also had eight days to get back to full strength which will be a nice boost.
The Demon Deacons are a much better three-point shooting team, so if they get hot, they can break open a lead in this one. And while Wake’s frontcourt is inexperienced, they did a great job making Wisconsin’s Tyler Wahl uncomfortable, who poses similar matchup problems to KJ Williams.
The Pick: Under 142
This game is a toss up in my eyes and I really don't have a strong feeling about who will come out on top. However, I do like the under. I don't think points are going to come easy in this one, as LSU has gotten in their fair share of grit fests early on this season.
My lean on the outcome is towards the Demon Deacons in a bounce back spot to pick up another nice non-conference win. LSU hasn't shown the type of connectivity on offense to give me the confidence that they will be able to break this one open, and after an off game I expect Appleby to return to form. Williams and Miller will be able to score in this matchup for the Tigers, but Wake has a much more balanced attack which should be the difference in them pulling out the win . This should be a back and forth battle, so my best bet is on the total.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 70 LSU 66
Season prediction record
4-5 ATS
7-2 Straight up
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