Wake Forest vs Appalachian State: Preview and Prediction
Gameday Info:
Tipoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Spread: Wake Forest -12.5
Moneyline: Wake Forest -900, Appalachian State +600
Total: 141
Appalachian State Team Overview:
Record: 6-4
KenPom Ranking: 224th (253rd Off, 184th Def)
Coming off of three-straight winning seasons, App State was predicted to come in 7th in the Sun Belt Conference preseason poll. The Mountaineers are off to a decent start on the young season. Last time out, they blew the doors off Division III Carlow, with a 60-point win. That preceded back-to-back losses against solid mid-major competition in Furman (65-61) and Charlotte (71-62). Their best win of the season in terms of KenPom was a 79-74 overtime victory at home over North Carolina Central (KP 207th). They also went and beat Louisville (KP 240th) back on Nov. 10, 61-60, but the 0-9 Cardinals are so bad that it's barely worth mentioning.
READ: How to Watch Wake Forest Basketball vs Appalachian State
App is led by 6-5 senior forward Donovan Gregory, a do-it-all guy averaging 12.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. Joining him in double figures are 6-3 sophomore guard Terence Harcum (10.5 ppg) and 6-1 senior guard Tyree Boykin (10.9 ppg). Head coach Dustin Kearns employs a balanced attack where ten guys regularly see court time, and nobody averages more than 27 minutes per game.
Key Stat:
6-9 freshman big man Justin Abson has been fantastic on the defensive end so far this season. He’s averaging 2.5 blocks per game, and is fifth in the nation in block% according to KenPom. His excellence on that end of the floor has led to his recent insertion into the starting lineup.
Wake Forest Team Overview:
Record: 7-3
KenPom Ranking: 80th (65th Off, 97th Def)
After picking up a marquee 78-75 road win over Wisconsin on Nov. 29, the Demon Deacons have stumbled to two-straight losses. In a 77-57 defeat at Clemson, Wake was outscored 51-28 in the second half. At Holiday Hoopsgiving in Atlanta on Saturday taking on LSU, the Deacs blew a 20-point lead, and lost a heartbreaker 72-70.
Super senior guard Ty Appleby had a down game against Clemson (8 pts, 5 ast) but was nothing short of spectacular against Wisconsin (32 pts, 5 ast) and LSU (26 pts, 6 ast). The 6-1 playmaker has given defenses fits all season long with his ability to penetrate off the bounce, and he’s been incredibly efficient shooting the ball as well. He’s got a chance to pull off 50/40/90 (FG%/3P%/FT%) splits this season, as he currently sits at 53.5/44.4/86.0.
Nobody has been nearly as consistent for this team as Appleby. Sophomore guard Cameron Hildreth has been the secondary scoring option, and he’s scored in double figures the last six games. While his scoring pop and energy have been very valuable, his decision-making has been questionable at times. He’s turned the ball over 11 times over the past three games, and sometimes tries to do too much.
READ: Series History - Wake Forest Basketball vs Appalachian State
Delaware transfer Andrew Carr has gotten into foul trouble in three-straight contests and only scored 12 combined points in that span. Through the season's first eight games, he averaged 12 per game.
Sharpshooter Damari Monsanto has been cold over the last three games. He’s 6-26 (23%) from three-point land during that span. But, in his last two home games, he is 10-17 (59%) from distance.
Fifth-year guard Daivien Williamson (10.0 ppg) missed two games in late November due to injury, and he’s come off the bench in his last three games of action. He’s been inefficient this season (34.8 FG%) and Wake needs him to get back to playing at a high level.
One bright spot lately has been the play of sophomore big-man Matthew Marsh. Marsh went for 13 points and 11 rebounds and made all six of his field goal attempts against LSU. After logging nine combined minutes and not even seeing the floor once in the first three games of the season, Marsh has established himself as the team’s best big.
Key stat:
Wake Forest is 23rd in the nation in field goal percentage on two-point attempts at 56.8%. Part of this is because, in head coach Steve Forbes’ offense, most shots come from behind the arc and at the rim. It also has to do with Appleby’s extremely consistent finishing around the basket, and Marsh is sixth in the country since Nov. 20 with 16 dunks.
Why App State will cover:
- While the Mountaineers schedule hasn’t been very difficult, they have never looked outmatched in a game. They competed well in close losses vs Furman (KP 89th) and at Charlotte (KP 132), and their other two losses were by four and five points respectively. With a chip on their shoulder taking on a bigger program in the state of North Carolina, the Mountaineers are totally capable of keeping this game from getting out of reach. Yes, it was the train wreck that was Louisville, but they already have an ACC win under the belt. App State’s depth and physicality could make this game closer than expected.
READ: Three-star OT Uber Ajongo commits to Wake Forest
Why Wake Forest will cover:
The Demon Deacons blew a late lead in the Jersey Mike’s Jamaica Classic and lost to Loyola Marymount in overtime back on Nov. 10. They returned home and proceeded to win their next two games by an average margin of 29 points. While App State is a step above South Carolina State and Hampton, the common theme lies in the Demon Deacons bouncing back for impressive performances after letting a game they should’ve won slip away late. Appleby is playing at a First Team All-ACC level, and the supporting cast should be able to get back into a rhythm offensively on the home floor. Wake should be able to hit 80 in this game, so as long as they don’t get sloppy with the basketball and clean up on the glass, this should be an easy win.
The Pick: Over 141
Wake could definitely break this game open and cruise to an easy victory, but I’m not confident enough to lay the 12.5. This is the toughest test of the Mountaineers season to date, so I don’t feel good riding the road underdog against an angry Steve Forbes coached team. My strongest lean for this matchup is the over, as I expect Wake to play fast and get into a rhythm offensively. The Demon Deacons are averaging 77.7 points per game, and I bet that they’ll surpass that number in this get right spot.
Score Prediction: Wake Forest 82 Appalachian State 71
Season prediction record
5-5 ATS
7-3 Straight up
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