ACC Football Week 6: Game Previews and Predictions
The Week 6 schedule is filled with ACC matchups, aside from No. 15 Wake Forest’s matchup with Army. Clemson is in firm control of the Atlantic, which is shaping up as one of the best divisions in college football. The Coastal, on the other hand, is wide open.
Saturday
Louisville (2-3) at Virginia (2-3)
Spread: Louisville -2.5 (-110), Virginia (+2.5) (-110)
Moneyline: Louisville (-155), Virginia (+130)
Total: 50.5
Time/Channel: Noon ET, ACCN
A week after handling South Florida 41-3, the Cardinals flopped against a subpar Boston College side in a 34-33 loss as two touchdown favorites on the road. Louisville is 0-3 so far in ACC play, and a large part of that falls on their defense, who is allowing over 33 points per game. Star QB Malik Cunningham left late in the BC game, and is questionable for this one with concussion-like symptoms.
Virginia enters this interconference battle coming off of back-to-back ACC defeats, falling to the surprisingly relentless Blue Devils team 38-17 a week after faltering late and losing 22-20 at Syracuse. Somehow, Quarterback Brennan Armstrong has been dreadful in his fifth consecutive year at the helm for Virginia, part of an overall lethargic Cavalier offense. Despite a very promising showing last year (31 TDs to 10 INTs in 2021), Armstrong has struggled under the tutelage of first year coach Tony Elliott, to the tune of four passing touchdowns and five interceptions over five games.
The Pick: Louisville -2.5
Both teams desperately need their first win in ACC play in order to keep their bowl hopes alive. Louisville is the more talented side here, and their struggling defense will likely get back on track against the second-worst scoring offense in the ACC (18 points per game). Assuming Cunningham is good to go, I’ll go with the Cardinals here to win by more than a field goal.
READ: Wake Forest Football: Q&A with Army Football Writer
Virginia Tech (2-3) at Pittsburgh (3-2)
Spread: Pittsburgh -14.5 (-110), Virginia Tech +14.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh (-600), Virginia Tech (+430)
Total: 42
Time/Channel: 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN
In the midst of a rebuilding year, the Hokies found themselves on the wrong side of another result last week, as North Carolina took care of them in a 41-10 rout. Virginia Tech continues to go as far as signal-caller Grant Wells goes, as he went nowhere on Saturday afternoon with 139 yards and no passing touchdowns. His offense mustered just one touchdown against a Carolina defense that entered the contest dead last in the ACC in yards and points allowed.
It is safe to say the 2021 ACC Champions are not on track to repeat in 2022, as the Panthers fell as three possession favorites to lowly Georgia Tech in a 26-21 defeat last week. Pittsburgh held the Yellow Jackets out of the endzone for ten straight drives and still lost this game. Quarterback Kedon Slovis threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns, but was inaccurate, completing only 26/45 passes (58%).
The Pick: Virginia Tech +14.5
Both teams are coming off of embarrassing losses, but I’m not confident enough in Pittsburgh to lay the 14.5. Tech is a mess offensively and if they couldn’t get anything going against UNC it’s difficult to imagine this will be a different story. Slovis will do enough to lead Pitt to victory but this won’t be a blowout.
Duke (4-1) at Georgia Tech (2-3)
Spread: Duke -3.5 (-110) Georgia Tech +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Duke (-160), Georgia Tech (+135)
Total: 55
Time/Channel: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Duke continued their promising season by opening conference play with a 38-17 demolition over Virginia. The Blue Devils moved into a tie for first in the Coastal, winning their first ACC game since October 2020 (13 straight losses). They once again capitalized on a strong rushing attack that posted 250 yards and three touchdowns, highlighted by career highs in carries (19) and yards (97) from redshirt junior Jaylen Coleman.
After letting go of underwhelming head coach Geoff Collins (25-38 over four years), interim coach Brent Key led Georgia Tech to a major upset (+1050 on the moneyline) in a 26-21 victory over Pittsburgh. Key cited his team’s ability to cut out costly mistakes as an essential piece of their shocking win last Saturday. Their typically suspect special teams unit posted a positive EPA (expected points added) for the first time this season.
The Pick: Georgia Tech ML
Trap line alert! Duke is playing great, and Georgia Tech was lucky to win in an emotional response game, right? But Duke is only favored by a little over a field goal. There is excitement in this Georgia Tech program for the first time since Collins was hired in 2019, and Bobby Dodd stadium figures to be rocking. I’m taking the Yellow Jackets to pull off another upset win.
READ: Wake Forest Football: Army Players to Watch
North Carolina (4-1) at Miami (2-2)
Spread: Miami -3.5 (-110) North Carolina +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Miami (-170), North Carolina (+145)
Total: 66
Time/Channel: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Tar Heels have had an encouraging start to the season, albeit with one blemish in a 45-32 defeat to Notre Dame two weeks ago, and are currently atop the ACC Coastal throne (4-1 overall, 1-0 ACC). They are led by a potential Heisman candidate in quarterback Drake Maye, who has dazzled with nearly 1,600 passing yards and eighteen total touchdowns.
The bye week came at the perfect time for the Hurricanes. In Week 4, they suffered the second-worst loss (25.5 point favorites) in program history in a 45-31 loss to Middle Tennessee. New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis does not seem to be meshing well with signal-caller Tyler Van Dyke. In year three, Van Dyke has surprisingly taken a step back. He committed two turnovers and was averaging 4.3 yards per attempt before being pulled late in the previous game.
The Pick: North Carolina +3.5
The total is high for a reason - this game should be a shootout. And in a shootout, I’d rather have the quarterback playing at a higher level. Miami should be ready to go after the bye week, but I’ll scoop the 3.5 siding with an explosive Tar Heels team averaging 45.4 points per game.
#15 Wake Forest (4-1) vs Army (1-3)
Spread: Wake Forest -16.5 (-110), Army +16.5
Moneyline: Wake Forest (-800), Army (+550)
Total: 65.5
Time/Channel: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
Click here to read our staff’s predictions for this one.
#5 Clemson (5-0) at Boston College (2-3)
Spread: Clemson -20.5 (-110), Boston College +20.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Clemson (-1600), Boston College (+900)
Total: 48.5
Time/Channel: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
In their 30-20 victory over then No. 10 North Carolina State, coach Dabo Swinney displayed his coaching prowess, as the Tigers negated the Wolfpack’s strengths perfectly. After a DJ Uiagalelei touchdown rush at the end of the second quarter, the Tigers turned on the jets defensively. Five of the next six Wolfpack possessions resulted in a punt or a turnover. Uiagalelei continued to silence the doubters, taking care of the football and setting career highs in carries (14) and yards (73) with two scores on the ground.
Boston College secured their first ACC victory Saturday, upsetting Louisville 34-33 despite being two touchdown underdogs. The Eagles entered the fourth quarter trailing 33-28, but fought hard defensively, turning the Cardinals over on downs on back to back drives. BC held the ball for nearly 11 minutes in the final frame. Their conference-worst rushing attack found a rhythm and managed 144 yards on the ground, nearly double their season average.
The Pick: Clemson -20.5
There is reason to be skeptical of the number here despite the talent gap between these two teams; the Tigers are 1-2 ATS this season when they are favored by at least 20 points. However, this is a huge letdown spot for the Eagles as they come off their biggest home upset in years. Expect Clemson to quiet an admirable but insufficient Boston College crowd this week.
READ: Wake Forest Prepared For “Dogfight” Against Army
Florida State (4-1) at #14 North Carolina State (4-1)
Spread: North Carolina State -3.5 (-110), Florida state +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: North Carolina State (-149), Florida State (+150)
Total: 50.5
Time/Channel: 4 p.m. ET, ACCN
NC State failed to take advantage of an opportunity to make a massive statement against No. 5 Clemson last week, falling 30-20. Two crucial second-half turnovers, a tipped interception and a mishandled snap by quarterback Devin Leary, cost the Wolfpack in a game they could’ve won. This came briefly after defensive standout Aydan White, who leads the team with two interceptions, dropped a clear pick-six that would have knotted the game at 20.
The Seminoles are coming off a similarly disappointing loss, as they missed a chance to cement their brief AP ranking (No. 25) by falling at home to Wake Forest 31-21. After an opening drive touchdown, Florida State went stagnant on both sides of the ball and yielded 28 unanswered points. Despite a devastating fumble early in the second quarter, quarterback Jordan Travis kept up his impressive play, throwing for 280 yards and three scores.
The Pick: North Carolina State -3
Both teams are looking to bounce back and grab a quality win after they both fumbled (pun intended) the opportunity to do so last week. This will be a close one, but I’ll take the Wolfpack to win and cover. I’ll give a slight nod to the FSU offense but the State defense is definitely stronger, so I’ll side with the home team here.
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