Predicting The 2025 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Record Game-By-Game
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Every fan's done it – pull up the Wake Forest Demon Deacons' schedule and pick each game. Win, win, win, loss, win...you know the drill. It's a fun exercise, if not an incredibly flawed way to actually project wins and losses. So, I couldn't resist. Here's my game-by-game prediction of Wake Forest's record for the 2025 college football season.
At the end, I'll present a much more accurate way of forecasting wins and losses (the way I actually do it in the preseason). It's less fun, so I'll save it for the end.
Predicting Wake Forest's 2025 Football Season Game-by-Game
According to ESPN's FPI, Wake Forest drew an advantageous schedule for this season. It ranks as the 79th-toughest in the nation and second-easiest in the ACC. There's no Clemson or Miami, the two ACC frontrunners, and SMU, Georgia Tech, and NC State all come at home.
Week 1: vs. Kennesaw State Owls
I'll be honest here, Kennesaw State isn't very good and turns almost everything completely over. This should be a nice introduction to Jake Dickert and the new Demon Deacons. No surprises here.
Predicted result: WIN (1-0)
Week 2: vs. Western Carolina Catamounts
Generally, FBS teams (especially in Power Conferences) can be expected to beat FCS ones. WCU is a decent, not great, FCS opponent, and it should handily be two consecutive wins to start the year for Wake.
Predicted result: WIN (2-0)
Week 3: vs. NC State Wolfpack
This is where things start to get difficult. NC State turns over its star defensive coordinator, who left for the Marshall head coaching job, but should still improve defensively thanks to better personnel. Last year was an anomaly, leaving NC State with its worst record since 2019 and, before then, 2013. Under young but talented QB C.J. Bailey, the Wolfpack are likely due for positive regression.
While NC State historically has owned the ACC's longest continuous rivalry (119th edition!), Wake has won five of the last eight. Given turnover and expected trajectory this season, I don't foresee another upset like last year.
Predicted result: LOSS (2-1)
Week 4: BYE
Week 5: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech's offense is frightening. In order to beat the Yellow Jackets this year, you need a top-40 defense or a lot of luck. I don't forecast a top-40 defense for Wake, and I don't take rolls of the dice on luck when projecting games. The Deacs need to score points early and often in this one, even at home, or this could be an ugly result.
Predicted result: LOSS (2-2)
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets team preview
Week 6: at Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech isn't expected to be a world-beater this season by any stretch and turns over both coordinators in Year 4 under Brent Pry (yikes!). But Lane Stadium is a nightmare to play in, and ten of Pry's 16 wins as head coach came in Blacksburg.
Wake fans will get a look at longtime Deac Donovan Greene, who sports Hokie maroon and orange now. New RB Terion Stewart is one of the nation's best at forcing missed tackles. This might be a muddy rock fight with not a lot of points scored. Wake needs to score points to win.
I see this more of a toss-up than a preseason numbers forecast, and I usually lean toward the home team in toss-ups.
Predicted result: LOSS (2-3)
Week 7: at Oregon State Beavers
I despise this situational spot for Wake. From one coast to the other without a bye, this is a tough turnaround spot. Virginia Tech is a physical and tough opponent, and Wake will likely be beat up from the aforementioned rock fight. Now, to turn around and visit Corvallis with a revitalized offense...I just don't like it.
Oregon State is a good foe for Wake and gives the Deacons a rare opportunity to be favored – if they played this at home. But Corvallis is a tough place to win. Regardless of team performance, Reser Stadium is regularly at or over capacity.
I don't think Wake has the defense to slow down RB Anthony Hankerson, QB Maalik Murphy, or WR Trent Walker. This is a much better Beavers team than last year.
Predicted result: LOSS (2-4)
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: SMU Mustangs
Last year's College Football Playoff participant returns its starting QB, head coach, and both coordinators. While some of the talent up front is gone, SMU presents a significant threat to the ACC. Unfortunately, this is simply a team capable of overmatching and overpowering Wake Forest in nearly every facet of the game.
Even with the rest advantage, I don't love the Deacs here. They'll fare better because of that bye week, but I forecast the point spread of this game to be over 15 points.
Predicted result: LOSS (2-5)
Week 10: at Florida State Seminoles
Last year, Florida State was a disaster. While I doubt the ability for this team to contend for an ACC title, it won't be the disaster we saw last year – not by a long shot. FSU has the rest advantage and plays at home while Wake comes off an extremely physical opponent in SMU and hits the road.
There's a light here, though. FSU has shown a propensity to throw in the towel when things don't go its way. That was exacerbated last year due to the non-competitive nature of the Noles. So if we're under .500 and Mike Norvell appears to be on his way out by November, maybe Wake can steal a game in Tallahassee.
But that's a reckless projection.
Predicted result: LOSS (2-6)
Week 11: at Virginia Cavaliers
Another coach who might be on his way out, Tony Elliott needs to rally the troops in 2025. Missing out on a bowl game (or worse) would likely be the end of his coaching tenure at UVA and this is where things fall apart.
Last year's edition sits sour in the minds of Wake fans as the Deacs held a 30-17 lead heading into the fourth quarter and lost at home. Not this time. UVA doesn't have the defensive chops capable of frustrating a now-seasoned offense.
QB Chandler Morris hung is hat on a few early inspired performances but otherwise has been painfully average. This is an opportunity on the road for Wake.
Predicted result: WIN (3-6)
Week 12: North Carolina Tar Heels
I don't buy the Belichick experiment. He's not a bad hire by any stretch, but I doubt his ability to enter college football and dominate like he did in the NFL. The roster is average and needs to find contributors. Transfer QB Gio Lopez is a fun dual-threat athlete who can elevate the players around him. In Week 12, this offense likely figures a couple things out.
It's a more talented roster than Wake Forest (not a rarity this year, unfortunately). This is also an opponent that Wake hasn't been able to figure out. Through head coaching and QB changes, the Deacs haven't won since 2019 – including losing 55-48 in the terrific 2022 season.
A bowl game doesn't appear all that likely this year, though this would be the game to solidify it.
Predicted result: LOSS (3-7)
Week 13: Delaware Blue Hens
A winnable game at home. I believe Delaware will be better than expected (you can read in-depth why below), but not good enough to knock off a Power Conference foe on the road.
If Wake loses this game, it'd be a true disaster.
Predicted result: WIN (4-7)
Week 14: at Duke Blue Devils
Duke is showing its willingness to spend in the transfer portal and a commitment to football after focusing on basketball and baseball only for so long. This is a good football team under a good head coach, Manny Diaz. Expect another physical roster with a darn talented QB in Darian Mensah. There's a change, with Duke's schedule (no Miami or SMU) that it's contending for a spot in the ACC Championship game.
Wake Forest hasn't won this one since 2021, when Duke went 3-9 and parted ways with head coach David Cutcliffe.
Predicted result: LOSS (4-8)
A Better Way To Predict Final Record
Instead of marking 1, 0, 1, 1, 0 for wins against each opponent, assigning probabilities is the best way to go. After all, if Wake Forest has a 46% chance to beat Oregon State, 54% of the time, they will lose. Adding these up comes out to an average expected number of wins. So now let's look at that schedule again with expected win probabilities (I promise these aren't pulled out of a hat, rather from aggregated industry power ratings):
vs. Kennesaw State: 88.6%
vs. Western Carolina: 82.1%
vs. NC State: 35.2%
vs. Georgia Tech: 23.8%
at Virginia Tech: 19.3%
at Oregon State: 46.1%
vs. SMU: 16.7%
at Florida State: 21.1%
at Virginia: 35.8%
vs. North Carolina: 34.0%
vs. Delaware: 83.3%
at Duke: 26.0%
This way brings us to an average 5.1 wins for the 2025 season, far above if we just took every <50% win expectancy and marked it as a loss. But keep in mind, that's an average expected win outcome. That means a 50% chance of 5-7 or worse and a 50% chance of 5.1-6.9 or better. This season, I think 4-8 is far more likely than 6-6.
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Brett is the ultimate college football traveler, currently en route to experience a game day at every FBS stadium. He is a former Division I recruiter at Bowling Green and Texas State, and his writing background includes analyzing NCAA betting markets. Also a high school football coach, Brett lives and dies by the gridiron. Follow along on all socials: @ roadtocfb.