Examining WVU's Big 12 Tournament Path & the Scenario(s) Needed to Go Dancing

As the West Virginia Mountaineers get set to head to Kansas City for the Big 12 Conference tournament, they’ll need a whole heck of a lot to go right to punch their ticket to the dance next Sunday.

Despite winning two of their last three games against BYU and UCF and finishing the Big 12 with a 9-9 record, the several bad losses have dented their résumé tremendously.

ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi has West Virginia as the first team listed outside of the next four out group in his latest projection.

So, is there still a chance for the view to receive an at-large bid? And if so, what would need to happen for the Mountaineers to sneak their way in?

Regardless, West Virginia is going to have to make it to the Big 12 championship game. By doing so, this means they would have a win over Houston, and potentially wins against BYU in the second round and against Kansas in the semifinals. Beating those three teams would go a really long way in beefing up the résumé, especially since it would wipe out their earlier loss to Houston and would make them a combined 4-0 against Kansas and BYU.

If this scenario plays out and they lose the Big 12 championship, they would be 21-14. I understand they would have more losses than most bubble teams, but if those are the three teams they play and beat en route to the championship round, that would give them eight Quad 1 victories on the year. The selection committee does have some recency bias, and winning five of your final seven games, heading into Selection Sunday, should get their attention, especially when you rip off the caliber of wins that are on the table.

Now, the more likely-ish scenario

Mar 6, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward Brenen Lorient (0) shoots during the second half against the UCF Knights at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

If you’re going to advance that far into the tournament, you might as well win it, right? Duh.

But for WVU to cut the nets down, they’re going to need some help along the way, getting some more favorable matchups.

So, instead of facing BYU in the second round, they would probably rather have Kansas State, which would give them an opportunity to erase that loss to the Wildcats a week ago.

Unfortunately, for Ross Hodge, there is no way to avoid Houston in the quarterfinals. If they somehow miraculously pull off that upset, then you’re hoping for Oklahoma State, Colorado, or TCU to make a run and advance past Kansas to the semi’s.

In the top half of the bracket, you want complete chaos and hope a team like UCF or Cincinnati gets red hot so you’re not going up against Arizona, Texas Tech, or Iowa State.

No, I don’t expect WVU to make it to the championship round and would be very surprised if they got past Houston in the quarters, but this is what March is for — the unexpected and magical moments.

In all likelihood, it’ll be a brief stay in Kansas City, and West Virginia will be deciding whether or not they want to continue their season in another tournament, such as the College Basketball Crown or NIT.