WVU Makes Sizable Jump in Bracketology Projection, Lands Back on the Bubble

West Virginia's NCAA Tournament hopes may be hanging on by a thread, but there is still hope for the Mountaineers entering the final week of the regular season, thanks to a huge upset win over No. 19 BYU over the weekend.

Saturday's victory over AJ Dybantsa and the Cougars moved WVU back into the conversation, now being the third team listed in Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology projection on ESPN.

Last Four Byes: SMU, UCLA, TCU, Texas A&M

Last Four In: Santa Clara, Ohio State, New Mexico, Indiana

First Four Out: Auburn, San Diego State, VCU, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: USC, California, West Virginia, Cincinnati

Next: Stanford, Seton Hall, Baylor Nevada

Do what you're supposed to do

Jan 27, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Treysen Eaglestaff (52) shoots in the lane against Kansas State Wildcats forward Taj Manning (15) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Imagesa | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Some may call it controlling their own destiny, but given how the selection process played out a year ago, I'm not sure we can ever call it that for a bubble team. Instead, how about just winning the games you are supposed to win? And yes, that includes Friday night's home matchup against a talented UCF squad, who will be out to avenge their loss to WVU last month.

But it all starts with Kansas State on Tuesday night. You can maybe get by losing to UCF if you make a run in the Big 12 Conference tournament, but the same can't be said with a loss to K-State. The Wildcats are 11-18 on the season and rank 102nd in the NCAA's NET Rankings. It'll be a Quad 2 road game for WVU, but let's get real, you're not going to make the dance with losses to Utah and Kansas State on the resume, who are currently a combined 21-37.

The first matchup with the Wildcats was ugly and put a scare into WVU. The shooting wasn't horrific, but it certainly wasn't great, going 42% from the floor and 29% as a team. Carelessness with the basketball made that one way more interesting than it needed to be, as the Mountaineers turned it over 13 times, leading to 18 points in the other direction. For whatever it's worth, that was after WVU had just returned home following a long road trip where they played two games in Arizona. Perhaps this situation suits them better.

Since firing Jerome Tang, the Wildcats are 1-3, dropping each of the last three to Texas Tech, Colorado, and TCU. Win that one and give yourself a prime opportunity to go 19-12 in the regular season with some help from the 14,000 on hand at Hope Coliseum on Friday.