WVU's Current Seed + Best & Worst-Case Scenarios for the Big 12 Tournament

Just two games stand between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Big 12 Conference tournament in Kansas City. There's still a chance for Ross Hodge's squad to earn an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament if they win these last two matchups against Kansas State and UCF and have some success in the conference tournament.

Speaking of that tournament, where are the Mountaineers now? Where could they be? Here's a look at the Big 12 tournament matchups if the event began today, as well as a best and worst-case scenario for WVU.

First round matchups

No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 16 Utah
No. 10 BYU vs. No. 15 Kansas State
No. 11 Colorado vs. No. 14 Oklahoma State
No. 12 Arizona State vs. No. 13 Baylor

Single bye (Teams seeded 5-8)

No. 5 seed: Iowa State — would face the winner of Arizona State/Baylor
No. 6 seed: UCF — would face the winner of Colorado/Oklahoma State
No. 7 seed: TCU — would face the winner of BYU/Kansas State
No. 8 seed: West Virginia — would face the winner of Cincinnati/Utah

Double byes (Top four teams)

No. 1 seed: Arizona — would face the winner of West Virginia vs. No. 9/No. 16
No. 2 seed: Texas Tech — would face the winner of TCU vs. No. 10/No. 15
No. 3 seed: Houston — would face the winner of UCF vs. No. 11/No. 14
No. 4 seed: Kansas — would face the winner of Iowa State vs. No. 12/No. 13

What this means for West Virginia

West Virginia University head coach Ross Hodge | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

There are a million ways this can all play out, so let's try to keep it somewhat simple.

The best-case scenario

If WVU takes care of business against Oklahoma State and then gets the season sweep over UCF, they'll jump the Knights in the standings because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Assuming TCU loses to Texas Tech on Tuesday, that'll give them their 8th loss in Big 12 play, matching WVU. They have the H2H over WVU, so the Mountaineers would need them to lose on Saturday to Cincinnati at home to leapfrog them as well. If it plays out that way, West Virginia would jump to the No. 6 seed, which is as high as they can possibly climb. That will give them a single bye and a matchup against the winner of the No. 11/No. 14 game. If they win that, they would face whoever is the No. 3 seed in the next round.

The worst-case scenario

If WVU lays an egg on the road against Kansas State and then also loses at home to UCF, they'll end the season with an 8-10 record in league play. They will fall behind BYU and Cincinnati if those two can win just one of their final two game in the scenario. The furthest West Virginia can fall would be to the No. 10 seed, even if Arizona State or Colorado win out (probably not happening anyway). The Mountaineers won the H2H against both. If all this happens, you can forget about WVU's shot at an at-large bid, of course. They'll have to cut down the nets in Kansas City to punch their ticket to the dance and will have to play in the opening round against the No. 15 seed. Win that, and they play a rested No. 7 seed. Find a way to win that one, and they'll play the extremely rested No. 2 seed.

Current Big 12 standings

Arizona: 14-2

Texas Tech: 12-4

Houston: 12-4

Kansas: 11-5

Iowa State: 11-5

UCF: 9-7

TCU: 9-7

West Virginia: 8-8

Cincinnati: 8-8

BYU: 8-8

Colorado: 6-10

Arizona State: 6-10

Baylor: 5-11

Oklahoma State: 5-11

Kansas State: 2-14

Utah: 2-14