Spread, Over/Under, & Predictions for West Virginia vs. TCU

WVU enters as small road dogs. Can they do more than just cover the spread?

Jan 21, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers center Harlan Obioha (55) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Saturday evening, West Virginia has an opportunity to get back on track and boost its NCAA Tournament resume with a Quad 1 road win over TCU. After Wednesday's crushing Quad 3 loss to Utah, this is one they badly need.

Here are my picks for this one.

Spread: TCU -5.5

Prediction: TCU covers.

West Virginia has dropped four in a row at TCU and seven of the last eight. Yes, I'm well aware that spans across the other head coaches, but still, it shows how tough of a time they've had there over the years, for whatever reason. It's not like one of those crazy environments, yet it's become a house of horrors for them. The other part of this is that the Frogs have just been more consistent lately. They've won three of their last four and have a win over No. 5 Iowa State, which took place in this very building. Physicality has been an issue for the Mountaineers all season long, and if there's one thing that really stands out about TCU, it's the level of physicality they play with. If WVU doesn't match that toughness, grit, and energy early on, it could be a long evening for the Old Gold and Blue.

Over/Under: 131.5

Prediction: Under.

Let's be honest with ourselves for a minute. Does anyone expect West Virginia's offense to awake from its slumber? No? Okay, well, there you go. That plays right into my prediction here for yet another defensive slugfest. Slow starts have become a theme here for the Mountaineers, so I do expect that to continue. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they put up a strong and efficient 40-point second half once they figure some things out. Even that won't be enough to overcome a likely 20-point or so output in the first twenty minutes of play.

Tip is set for 5 p.m. ET on NBC or Peacock. After the game, head over to our YouTube page (West Virginia On SI) for the Mountaineer Postgame Show, where we'll take a look at the final numbers, talk about the positives, what needs to improve, and much more.

Note: Our predictions are not to be taken as gambling advice. These predictions are simply to give an opinion on what we think will happen in this week's game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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