Any Danger in Round One? What the BPI Says About WVU's Matchup vs. Miami (OH)

Is West Virginia a near lock to advance?

Jan 11, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward Kierra Wheeler (22) celebrates after they beat the Iowa State Cyclones during the second half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Bring on March Madness! Later this afternoon, Hope Coliseum will be rocking as two NCAA Tournament games will be played in Morgantown for the first time in over three decades.

Big 12 champion West Virginia will square off with No. 13 seed Miami (OH), who has their full attention.

“They’re used to winning. They’re playing with a ton of confidence," WVU head coach Mark Kellogg said on Friday. "They can shoot it offensively. It looks to me like they’ve kind of been known for what they do on the defensive end, and now, maybe in his third year, this is the best offensive group that he has. They can spread you, space you. They shoot at all five positions. They have a really dynamic point guard in (Tamar) Singer that can set the tone and set the stage for the rest of them. But yeah, they’re versatile, they’re deep. They have their league’s Player of the Year in (Amber) Tretter, so yeah, it’s a very good, well-coached team.”

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has a 96.2% chance of winning and advancing to the Round of 32, while Miami has just a 3.8% chance of pulling off the upset.

Although the RedHawks have had a strong season, they are completely outmatched in this one, so it's no suprise that the computers are projecting WVU as a near lock to win. If this were at 98 or 99%, I wouldn't see much of an issue with it.

West Virginia's recent games

The Mountaineers are riding a six-game winning streak coming into this one, freshly being crowned as Big 12 champs, where they had a somewhat comfortable win over No. 10 TCU. In that game, WVU's defense was stifling, holding the Frogs to just 33% from the floor and 26% from three-point land. TCU only turned it over 11 times, but just couldn't get very many open looks.

Miami's recent games

Since December 15th, Miami has lost just two games. Interestingly enough, one of those losses was a 15-point defeat to Ohio, which they turned around and beat by 28 less than a week later. In the MAC Championship game against Toledo, Miami forced 17 turnovers, resulting in 16 points. Just like West Virginia, they pride themselves on the defensive end and will force you into some tough decisions with the basketball. In the semifinals against Ohio, they turned the Bobcats over 15 times.