What the Analytics Say About West Virginia's Chances to Beat TCU on the Road

It feels like West Virginia has no shot of making the NCAA Tournament, but mathematically speaking, they're still alive for an at-large bid. They need to finish these final five games strong, and it all starts today against TCU (16-10, 6-7).

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has a 43.7% chance to move to 17-10, while TCU has a 56.3% chance to hand the Mountaineers their second straight loss.

When you look at the two rosters side by side, an argument can be made that the Mountaineers are a little behind, but they've been able to have more success with less, compared to TCU, which is virtually in the same spot as West Virginia, but a game behind them in the Big 12 Conference standings.

Schollmaier Arena has been a house of horrors for WVU over the years, and not because of their crazy designed court that makes your head hurt from looking at it. They've lost four straight meetings in this arena, with their last win coming in February of 2021. They've dropped seven of the last eight in Fort Worth, dating back to 2018.

West Virginia's recent games

The Mountainers have made a habit out of digging themselves an early hole. They did in each of their last two road games against Cincinnati and UCF, falling behind by as many as 14 in both affairs. Fortunately for them, they were able to come back and win both matchups. They played with fire once again earlier this week at home against last-place Utah, and this time, they got burned. West Virginia trailed by as many as 15, climbed all the way back to within three with just a few seconds to go, and fell short. Utah missed both free throws at the end of the game to give WVU a chance, but Jasper Floyd and Honor Huff weren't on the same page, resulting in a turnover out of bounds.

TCU's recent games

The Frogs caught fire there for a moment, winning three straight games, including a huge upset win over No. 5 Iowa State that no one saw coming. In that game, TCU had a huge advantage at the free-throw line, putting up 23 shots to Iowa State's 8. The Cyclones made matters worse by only making two of those attempts. Micah Robinson and Tanner Toolson led in scoring with 17 each. The mini-winning streak was snapped on the road at UCF earlier this week as they put on their best West Virginia impression. They trailed 42-28 at the half, made an effort to come back, but it was too little, too late.