Can WVU Steal One on the Road? BPI Reveals Their Chances of Taking Down UCF

West Virginia and UCF may be a game that goes right down to the wire.

Jan 21, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers guard Jasper Floyd (1) against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Desert Financial Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

From this point forward, every game is critical to West Virginia's chances of making the NCAA Tournament. This evening, they are back on the road for a tough matchup against the UCF Knights, who can put up a bunch of points in a hurry.

Can the Mountaineers get the job done?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI), West Virginia has a 45.3% chance to win while UCF has a 54.7% chance to snap its two-game slide.

As even as these teams appear to be, I expected UCF to be a slightly bigger favorite. Not so much because I don't think West Virginia can win, but rather because I'm thinking about how the BPI typically measures games. The Mountaineers have not played well on the road and have failed to break 60 points in four of their last five games. UCF is one of the top 50 scoring teams in the country, so if the game flows UCF's way, it could be problematic.

West Virginia's recent games

It's been a string of inconsistency for the Mountaineers over the last six games, alternating wins and losses. As previously noted, the offense has been a major thorn in their own side of late and played a key role in their home losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. Against the Red Raiders, they shot a dreadful 2/22 (9%) from three-point range.

UCF's recent games

The Knights appeared to be on their way up the Big 12 standings and firmly cementing themselves as an NCAA Tournament team after taking down Texas Tech. Since they've dropped two straight, including a 20-point loss to Cincinnati, making a huge dent in their tournament resume. Defense has been an issue for them all season long, and it certainly was against the Bearcats, who shot 59% from the field and an unthinkable 61% (11/18) from three.

The Mountaineers and Knights are scheduled to throw the ball up in the air at approximately 6 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on FS1 and can be heard live on the Mountaineer Sports Network.

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