What the BPI Matchup Predictor Says About WVU's Chances vs. Kentucky

Can the Mountaineers continue to dance?

Mar 7, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Mark Kellogg watches the run of play against the Colorado Buffaloes during the first half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images | Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

West Virginia is one win away from making a little bit of history, and the Kentucky Wildcats are the only thing standing in the way. If WVU were to win and advance, it would be just the second time in program history that they've reached the Sweet Sixteen.

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, the Mountaineers have a 51.7% chance of advancing to their first Sweet Sixteen this century, while Kentucky has a 48.3% chance to send West Virginia fans home with disappointment written all over their force.

My take: For once, I actually agree with what the computer is projecting. Okay, I agreed with the near-lock against Miami (Ohio), but I mean in a game against another high major. This team has been disrespected all season long and should have had a spot in the top 16 much sooner. This is going to be a dogfight, and one that I believe West Virginia has the slightest of edges in because of their defense and 14,000 fans behind them. Can't hate on it being considered a toss-up.

West Virginia's first round game

It took a few minutes for the Mountaineers to settle in, which they did after Miami called a timeout to avoid a 10-second violation. They forced a turnover on the ensuing inbound and ramped up the pressure immediately, causing the RedHawks to get all out of sorts. From that point on, West Virginia steadily grew its lead and coasted to victory. WVU held Miami to 39% shooting from the field, forced 15 turnovers, and dominated them on the boards with a +16 advantage.

Kentucky's first round game

Unlike WVU, the Wildcats came out on fire, posting a 32-point first quarter. From the second quarter on, it was a very competitive game as the Dukes were -3 in the second quarter and won the third and fourth quarters by five each. Kentucky's defense was air-tight on the perimeter, limiting James Madison to a dreadful 3/17 night from three-point range. Double-double machine Clara Strack finished the game with 10 points, 14 rebounds (five offensive rebs.), four assists, two steals, and two blocks.

Tip is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2. After the game, head over to our YouTube page (West Virginia On SI) for the Mountaineer Postgame Show, where we'll take a look at the final numbers, talk about the positives, what needs to improve, and much more.