FPI Gives Shockingly Low Win Probability for West Virginia vs. a Reeling UCF Team

For the first time all season, it feels like West Virginia enters a game in a great spot situationally. They're coming off a bye following a game that was played on a Friday night, so they were able to get an extra day of rest, although they didn't pull back into Morgantown until 11 a.m. on the Saturday following the BYU game.

On the other hand, UCF is coming off a road loss to Cincinnati and is trying to figure out which quarterback to roll with this week.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. UCF

According to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), West Virginia has just a 28.1% chance to win while the Knights have a 71.9% chance to move back above .500.

I understand the bleak view on the Mountaineers, but just how poorly does the computer view West Virginia? I mean, UCF hasn't scored more than 20 points in a Big 12 Conference game this season, and its only Power Four win came against North Carolina, which is atrociously bad. Given the uncertainty at quarterback, coupled with the Mountaineers coming off a bye, I'm shocked this is favoring UCF as heavily as it is. Keep in mind, the FPI is far from batting 1.000 on these games.

Change in analytics since initially released

Back in August, the FPI gave WVU a 33.1% chance in this game, which I thought was way too low at the time. So yeah, the 5% drop is still significant in my eyes because I view this as a coin toss type of game, more than anything. Before the season, I would have had West Virginia getting around 55% or so. Even with all the injuries the Mountaineers have suffered and how anemic they've looked on offense this season, I don't see much of a gap in talent between the two rosters. Also, in my opinion, WVU has played a much tougher schedule to this point, having faced Pitt and two Big 12 contenders in BYU and Utah.

What the ESPN FPI says for WVU vs. UCF

Change in analytics since initially released

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