How Likely Is WVU to Win Its Final Four Games? ESPN FPI Weighs In

The Mountaineers have reached the bye week with a 5-3 record and a 2-3 mark in Big 12 Conference play. The daunting November gauntlet awaits them on the other side, where they will take on three ranked teams in the final month of the season.

What are West Virginia's chances of winning each of its final four games? Here is the win probability that ESPN's FPI matchup predictor is giving them.

at Texas Tech: 11.3%

Before the season, I thought West Virginia would stand no chance against the Red Raiders. If you had told me back in August that, going into this game, WVU only had an 11% chance to win, I'd believe you and might even say, "Dang, they're actually getting some respect." Knowing what we know now? This seems incredibly low. I don't expect the Mountaineers to pull off the upset in Lubbock, but let's not kid ourselves here: the Red Raiders are far from the unstoppable force they were a year ago. They were lucky to be undefeated heading into last week's game against Cincinnati. They are vulnerable, and WVU's offense will give them a shot. This should be in the high 20s to low 30s for the Mountaineers.

vs. Kansas: 50.9%

Am I missing something here? The Jayhawks have one win over a Power Four team this season, and it came last week by one over Baylor, who is heading in the wrong direction. They lost by 17 at Utah and by 11 at Kansas State. They aren't talented enough to go on the road and win right now. How this isn't 70% or higher is beyond me.

vs. Houston: 23.8%

This may seem pretty low, but Houston is legit. They took Utah down to the wire and beat Oklahoma State by three. Their only other loss came to Texas Tech by two on the road, and it's one that they nearly won. If you're looking for optimism here, it's that Houston is 1-2 against Power Four teams on the road, and West Virginia beat them last year with less talent on offense against a stingier Houston defense. WVU's offense is one of the best in the nation this year, and the Cougs are 68th nationally in total defense, so not quite what they were in 2025.

at Utah: 9%

Yeah, this is going to be a tough one. The Utes are playing like one of the best teams in the country right now, and playing at Rice-Eccles at night, on Black Friday, with them having a lot to play for, is far from ideal. Again, with West Virginia's offense, they are going to have a shot in every game they play, but this is going to be similar to facing TCU's defense. They're physical, don't make many mistakes, and force a bunch of punts. The difference between them and TCU? They have a top-10 offense.

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