Mike Hawkins Jr.’s Passing Numbers Don’t Tell the Story You Think

The WVU QB is often misjudged as a passer. We break down the reasons behind his numbers.

West Virginia University quarterback Mike Hawkins Jr. | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

If you look at the box score and see a low completion percentage, you might think WVU QB Mike Hawkins Jr. struggles to throw the football. But there's more to the story.

I've been saying all year that he's a much better thrower of the football than the numbers suggest, and today, I'm going to lay that out now that we are at the midway point of the season.

The deep ball

One of the main things that is keeping Hawkins' completion percentage down is that WVU relies so much on taking shots down the field when they do throw it. As a matter of fact, only two quarterbacks in the country have thrown more balls 20+ yards downfield this season: Braden Atkinson (Oregon State) and Kalieb Osborne (UConn).

The outlier among the three here is that Atkinson is in a pass-heavy offense, so only 19% of his attempts are 20+ yards. 24.5% of Osborne's passes travel 20+ yards; meanwhile, Hawkins is a nation-leading 34.2%. The next closest by a full-time Power Four starter is Isaiah Marshall at 24.8%.

As you can imagine, the further the ball travels, the lower the completion percentage is going to be. And guess what? Hawkins' 39.5% on such throws is on par with every quarterback who has attempted around the same number of throws — they are all in the high 30s or low 40s percent range.

The intermediate passing game

Currently, Hawkins is completing 54.5% of his passes in the intermediate passing game (10-19 yards). It's a number that he would like to improve, but it's also the lowest percentage of his attempts (19.8%). 12/22 isn't all that bad at all.

And for what it's worth, that 54.5% still ranks above notable names such as Nico Iamaleava (UCLA), Lincoln Keinholz (Louisville), Bear Bachmeier (BYU), Kenny Minchey (Kentucky), CJ Bailey (NC State), Anthony Colandrea (Virginia), Avery Johnson (Kansas State), Beau Pribula (Virginia), Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Cal), Aaron Philo (Florida), and Faizon Brandon (Tennessee), just to name a few.

Quick game

On throws behind the line of scrimmage to the sticks, Hawkins has been money, completing 31-of-42 passes (73.8%) for 242 yards and has yet to have a single turnover-worthy play on such plays.

And if you ask me, I think there could stand to be a little bit more of a quick-game element to what they do offensively. Instead of checkdowns to the backs, some more RPOs, screens, bubbles, slants, etc. would go a long way in opening things up and also allowing Hawkins to settle in and get in a groove much earlier rather than having to do so on deep shots on third down when the defense is expecting it. It's just like a scorer in basketball; you've got to see the ball go through the hoop a couple of times to start feeling it, even if it's a layup. That's no different here.

Not to mention, there are drops and throwaways that factor into the equation as well. Hawkins isn't going to be a risk-taker and force the ball into tight windows. If there isn't anything there and he can't get out with his legs, he is going to chuck it out of bounds and live to see another down.

If WVU had a little more balance to its pass-play diet (more intermediate and quick game), his numbers would look a lot better. Some of these plays are just taking too long to develop, and I do believe some of that is by design to run guys out of the picture and free up more space for Hawkins to run.

Are there some throws he would like to have back? Absolutely. He hasn't been perfect, and he would be the first one to tell you that. There have been some throws that have sailed over him, but it's not because he can't throw the ball. That's a lazy and false narrative. It comes down to rhythm and the type of pass plays that are called.