One More Win for WVU? ESPN's FPI May Need Recalibration

The computers still don't believe in Rich Rodriguez and the Mountaineers.

West Virginia University quarterback Nicco Marchiol | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

A week ago, things looked bleak for West Virginia after losing 17-10 to Ohio and losing key offensive playmakers running back Jahiem White and wide receiver Jaden Bray. The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) thought so lowly of the Mountaineers that it projected WVU to lose its remaining ten games of the 2025 season.

Naturally, West Virginia went out and axed that prediction in its very next time out, taking down Pitt in overtime 31-24. So, how has the FPI analytics adjusted? Oh, boy. You're going to love this (sarcastic voice).

What the FPI says about WVU's chances to win each remaining game

West Virginia University football vs. Pitt 2025 | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

9/20 at Kansas - 19.4%

9/27 vs. Utah - 24.4%

10/3 at BYU - 12.3%

10/18 at UCF - 34.7%

10/25 vs. TCU - 28.2%

11/1 at Houston - 30.7%

11/8 vs. Colorado - 56.9%

11/15 at Arizona State - 18.1%

11/29 vs. Texas Tech - 29.1%

Why this won't happen

West Virginia University head coach Rich Rodriguez | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

One win! Woo! The FPI really believes in the Mountaineers now...

Seriously? A 3-9 campaign? Let's be real, that's not happening. Rich Rodriguez's teams always play much better in November than they do in September, and that's been the case everywhere he's been, regardless of level or era.

It might not happen this week, but at some point this season, he's going to get the offense to a respectable level, which is all they really need in year one when you take into consideration how well the defense has played.

How many wins are on the table?

West Virginia University receiver Cam Vaughn | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

I'm still shaking my head at the FPI predicting UCF over WVU. They struggled to beat Jacksonville State (hmmm...) in the opener and then beat the doors off a bad North Carolina A&T team. Unless West Virginia either has a rash of injuries or UCF drastically improves, I don't see that result happening.

Houston, to me, is the other one I look at. Their defense is salty, per usual under Willie Fritz, but I've still got some questions about their offense. And no, putting up 36 on Colorado doesn't tell me a lot.

Rodriguez is also known to spring an upset or two throughout the season. Heck, it could even come this weekend at Kansas. It's a tough slate, don't get me wrong, but only one more win? Yeah, I don't think so.

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