SP+ Predicts Nail-Biter Between WVU and Oklahoma State

Tonight, all eyes in the Big 12 Conference will be on the matchup in Morgantown between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The winner of this game will move to 1-0 in league play, hop into the AP Top 25 rankings, and be viewed as a possible contender in the conference.

Each week, we take a look at what Bill Connelly's SP+ model on ESPN says about that week's West Virginia game and for this one, it is projecting a 28-26 Mountaineers win.

WEEK 4 SP+ PICKS

Texas 29, Tennessee 28
LSU 27, A&M 23
Oregon 30, USC 29
Georgia 31, OU 18
Michigan 23.2, Iowa 22.9!
Mizzou 27.1, Miss St 26.6!
Indiana 35, Northwestern 14
Ohio State 37, Illinois 16
Utah 29, Iowa St 20
Bama 30, S Caro 21

Full list: https://t.co/hE9ryDBYrH pic.twitter.com/RRdhLvtN4B
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 20, 2026

Your quick, weekly explainer of the SP+: The SP+ factors in how good/poor a team's offense and defense are, how they perform on every snap, the tempo of both teams, and projects a winner.

Now, for what it's worth, Connelly's model projected Virginia to beat the Mountaineers in Charlotte last week, 30-20. It's not perfect, of course, as it projects a score for every single football game, but it's usually very accurate and considered to be one of the top projection models out there.

Don't expect this one to be anything but a close game

Sep 19, 2026; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez celebrates after defeating the Virginia Cavaliers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

I know everyone is wondering which Oklahoma State team will show up. Is it the one that looked out of sorts against Tulsa and lost? The one that dominated Oregon? Or some version of both?

My guess is some combination of the two. This is a talented roster that Eric Morris has put together in his first season in Stillwater, but it's also going to be the first time they've played in front of 60,000 fans as the road team. Communication is going to be key, and it might take them a few possessions to settle into the game.

If West Virginia repeats its performance from a week ago, they are going to be in a great spot. They ran the ball effectively when everyone in the stadium knew they were going to run it, played an extremely physical brand of football, and played fairly well on the defensive side of the ball. This, however, is going to be their biggest challenge yet: trying to limit one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, Drew Mestemaker.

Regardless of who you believe comes out on top in this one, I think we can all agree that the expectation is some sort of down-to-the-wire finish. And in those types of games, it's usually the team that doesn't make the backbreaking mistake that comes out victorious. If it's the Mountaineers, it will be their first 4-0 start since 2018.

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