Two More Wins? FPI Still Sees Another Miserably Long Season for WVU

It's only one game into the season, and even the computers can't refrain from Week 1 overreactions. Sure, the Mountaineers played poorly in the second half, but there is context to it — they were trying to milk the clock and get out of there with a win without showing much of anything.

Before the season, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) had West Virginia going 3-9 (1-8), with the only games they were projected to win being Coastal Carolina, UT Martin, and Kansas.

Now? Well, the projected 3-9 (1-8) mark remains the same, but there are some significant changes in the Mountaineers' win probability in a handful of games, including a flip in the percentages for the matchups with Oklahoma State and Kansas.

Updated game by game win probabilty

West Virginia University quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

vs. UT Martin: 96.3% → 97.1% (+0.8%)

vs. Virginia: 27.2% → 15.1% (-12.1%)

vs. Oklahoma State: 49.1% → 61% (+11.9%)

at Iowa State: 45.5% → 41.9% (-3.6%)

vs. Arizona: 40.3% → 38.1% (-2.2%)

vs. Cincinnati: 39.9% → 31.7% (-8.2%)

at TCU: 24.4% → 25.5% (+1.1%)

at Texas Tech: 6.3% → 6.7% (+0.4%)

vs. Kansas: 50.4% → 43.4% (-7.0%)

vs. Houston: 38.1% → 37% (-1.1%)

at Utah: 18.7% → 12.7% (-6.0%)

A few things way off here...

West Virginia University Football | Christopher Hall - West Virginia on SI

vs. Virginia: Let's start with next week's game. Trust me, I completely understand being the heavy favorite, but just 15%? If the WVU team that dominated in the first half against Coastal shows up next week and looks even better, they'll have a puncher's chance.

vs. Cincinnati: Congrats to the Bearcats...I guess for beating...Boston College comfortably. Cincinnati does have a stout offensive line, but has some question marks all over the place, including quarterback. Personally, I just don't see West Virginia losing this game, especially at home. They've had their number since they first started playing one another.

at Texas Tech: Okay, not much changed here, but...a percentage INCREASE??? What?!? All because the Red Raiders didn't throttle Abilene Christian? Meh. Again, it's not even a full percentage point, but that number shouldn't go up a single notch until WVU proves what it can be.

vs. Kansas: I was shocked to see this one change as much as it did. Honestly, I expected it to be pretty much the same. Kansas had a laugher in their opener, so it's hard to get a read on them at this point. If they lose by multiple scores this week to Missouri, it'll tip back toward West Virginia's favor. This one will teeter-totter up until game week.

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