What a Dream, Nightmare, & Realistic 2026 Season Looks Like for WVU

Laying out all three scenarios for the Mountaineers this fall.

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Each year, before I give my game-by-game predictions for the upcoming West Virginia football season, I like to lay out all of the different scenarios that could play out for the Mountaineers.

What could it look like if they get out to a hot start and every bounce goes their way, how it could go if they can't find answers at key positions and have more bad injury luck, and then what the expectation for this team should be

Keep in mind that each bucket has to have some realism to it, or else there would be no point in having this conversation. Of course, a dream season would be running the table and winning the national championship, but that's not a realistic dream year for the Mountaineers, no matter how bad you may want it to be. And the same goes for the nightmare scenario. 0-12 or 1-11 isn't happening.

Nightmare scenario: 3-4 wins

Sep 27, 2025; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Rich Rodriguez reacts on the sidelines during the third quarter against the Utah Utes at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Don't overreact. This is dubbed the nightmare scenario for a reason. And with this comes a ton of bad luck. If this team stays healthy where it absolutely needs to, they won't finish 4-8, 3-9, or worse. This would essentially be a repeat of last season, where there were injuries galore at quarterback, running back, and maybe along the offensive line as well.

I'm not going to spend much time on this because it would be a waste. This team is too talented to win just a few games. If, for whatever reason, they land here and are healthy, then Rich Rod has some major problems to sort through, and the fans are not going to be pleased.

Realistic expectations: 5-7 wins

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I am a big believer in the potential of this offense. I think Rich Rod has the right quarterback in place with Mike Hawkins Jr., he has the nation's leading rusher in Cam Cook, and a veteran offensive line coached by one of the best in the business, Rick Trickett.

For me, many of the concerns lie on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. Finding a starting corner they can trust opposite of Chams Diagne may be a chore, and it could result in moving Geimere Latimer or Maliek Hawkins out there to get the job done.

The depth and experience in the front seven is far from ideal, and I think if you were to ask Rich Rod and defensive coordinator Zac Alley, they are not as big as they would like to be. Teams that rely heavily on the ground game may have their way with the Mountaineers up front.

Getting to a bowl game should be the goal. I understand that's a low bar, but it's year two of this rebuild, and there are 80+ new faces on the roster. Oh, and not to mention, the month of November is an absolute gauntlet.

Dream scenario: 8-10 wins

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I'll he honest, 10 seems a bit out of reach, but crazy things do happen, and that's about as crazy as I see things getting (in a good way) for WVU. 11-1 or 12-0 isn't feasible, but they can maybe reach 10 if everything bounces their way.

The real dream scenario is getting to eight or nine wins. Trust me, I thought long and hard about this, and I already know there will be a few folks saying, "You're calling eight wins a dream season??? Are you out of your mind???"

Again, let's sprinkle a hint of realism here. Doubling your win total from 2025 is a pretty big deal, if you ask me. This isn't going from two wins to four. You're going from four to eight and likely playing in a quality bowl game for the first time in years.

Knowing what we know now about this team, which isn't much, I'd have to think Mountaineer fans would sign up for an 8-4 season in a heartbeat, given how six of the past seven years have gone. It's not the ultimate dream, but if this happens, that means you beat some good teams along the way, protected home turf, and have talented pieces at key positions to build with into the future.

Again, look at that back half of the schedule — vs. Cincinnati, at TCU, at Texas Tech, vs. Kansas, vs. Houston, at Utah — you don't think getting out of the regular season with just four losses would be considered a dream? And that's not even factoring in games against Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Arizona.