Why the Big 12 Believes 2026 Will Finally Be a College Football Playoff Breakthrough

FRISCO, Texas — Thanks to its vantage point leading off the July media day circuit the last few years, the Big 12 has featured an oversized amount of College Football Playoff chatter for a league with just a single win in the event’s 12-season history.

It’s probably only natural. After a five-month offseason filled with repeated stories on CFP format size and expansion talk, the first set of coaches and players stepping up to a barrage of microphones are an easy mark to get asked their opinion on the playoff past, present and future.

Though Big 12 media days this year featured a far larger story that nobody really wanted to talk about, there were still plenty of folks ready to opine on the nature of the CFP and what the conference needs to do for the upcoming edition.

Namely, to borrow a phrase from Al Davis, Just win, baby.

“I think we need to win a game. We need to credentialize this conference as one of the best football conferences in America, and I think the way you do that is win when it matters most,” a vehement commissioner Brett Yormark says. “That being said, would I also like multiple teams? I’d love multiple teams and I think we have a real chance this year.”

In an ideal world, that would include multiple teams winning multiple games. But after seeing Texas Tech get blanked in last season’s Orange Bowl quarterfinal against Oregon in an affront to offensive football, beggars can’t be choosers.

The Red Raiders still remain the favorites in the Big 12, to not only return to the CFP but to actually win a game for the first time since TCU upset Michigan in 2022. Opposing coaches throughout the league noted they are an outlier in their overall roster spending and most believe the spending is in the same ballpark as other top CFP contenders like Texas, LSU and Ohio State.

Even after the Brendan Sorsby saga, that counts for a lot. Texas Tech had the most preseason All–Big 12 selections in 2026 and added plenty of playmakers at receiver, running back and in the secondary to have better depth than a year ago.

There’s still a pretty lofty belief in incumbent quarterback Will Hammond as well. Whether he recovers from his ACL injury in time for the season opener or not, those in Lubbock have seen enough to know they’ll be fine for the biggest games on their schedule—which hopefully can include a trip to one of the semifinals this season.

“The expectation has definitely changed in our building over the last few years. I love that. I love that expectation and we’re backing it up with the players that we have in the building,” coach Joey McGuire says. “College football fans in general, there’s a, ‘Hey, Texas Tech’s not supposed to be doing this,’ type thing, and that’s O.K. We’re good with it. We’re just going to try to do it and continue to do it the right way, try to defend the title, win the Big 12 again and then it’s really important that we win a playoff game.”

Though the tension between what the Red Raiders are doing, on and off the field, is unlikely to subside anytime soon, it’s not just the top end of the Big 12 which has become ultra competitive. It got to the point where hearing, Everyone can beat you, felt like an unofficial motto being bandied around The Star last week.

Given how many of the league’s games come down to the fourth quarter or even the final play in recent seasons, the sentiment should hold true again this season—especially as those at the bottom of the standings have strengthened.

Oklahoma State changed coaches and nearly the roster wholesale, bringing in a backfield most would be envious of in QB Drew Mestemaker and RB Caleb Hawkins. Kansas has always been a tough out and will get the benefit of having longtime offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki back in the fold in Lawrence. Baylor is hitching Dave Aranda’s job status to former five-star signal-caller DJ Lagway, while West Virginia’s transfer class was highly regarded.

Five teams won at least nine games last season and none shows signs of stopping either, lending plenty of credence to the Big 12’s claims about its top-to-bottom strength.

Others clearly do not see it that way, from the SEC as a whole to the CFP selection committee that has handed the Big 12 two byes to the quarterfinals in recent years but no running mate to go with the conference champion.

“If we get more teams in there, you’re going to have more access, I’m a firm believer of that. I think we should have more teams in it. We had some very worthy teams last year in this league,” Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield says. “BYU didn’t make it two years in a row. Double-digit wins. I mean, I think they’ve got a résumé that speaks for themselves and not to be able to get into that thing, it’s a little not right.”

The Cougars lost twice to Texas Tech in blowout fashion last season and were the second at-large team out of the field. The season prior saw a 10–2 BYU ranked 17th behind a trio of three-loss programs which didn’t make the field and a two-loss SMU that did as an at-large despite falling to the Cougars in Dallas.

While there’s an argument that breadth at the top of a conference beats depth throughout it when it comes to playoff success—just ask the Big Ten—those around the Big 12 remain a little more skeptical. Part of that is because they know the nature of this closely bunched league isn’t changing anytime soon and part of that is an inherent belief that it can still lead to some victories on the only stage that seems to matter to the wider college football world.

“Winning gets you to the CFP, so if there were a gap, that would obviously help you get there easier,” says Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham, who made the playoff two seasons ago. “But I think for us as a whole, we’ve got to create a good enough product that can get people to the CFP and let them advance in the CFP and continue to advance the brand of the Big 12.”

The Big 12 is sure hoping parity produces in the playoff this season.

No matter who or even how many though, there’s just one overriding directive: Just win.

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