WVU's ESPN FPI Ranking, Projected Record, Big 12 Odds, CFP Odds & More

If you are like me, you have a love/hate relationship with computers and technology. It's nice when it works, but when it doesn't, it can be maddening. We've become heavily reliant on computers in sports, as teams now have a bunch of analytics they look at each week and use to help them make decisions during a game or about who to put in.

Sometimes, though, the projections are wrong or seem off because it can't possibly know all of the factors needed to make the right call. The same can be said about the projection of a team's season. West Virginia doesn't bring much back from last year's squad and has over 80 new faces on the roster for the second straight season. After what happened last year, though, that's a good thing.

The computers over at ESPN are not high on the Mountaineers whatsoever, but probably don't realize that this year's roster is more talented across the board and has a more manageable schedule.

Here's where the FPI has WVU ranked, their projected record, chances to make a bowl, College Football Playoff, and more.

ESPN FPI Ranking: 66

Surely this year's edition of the Mountaineers will be better than what we saw a year ago, right? Right? Well, for whatever it's worth, the FPI gives them the same exact preseason ranking, checking in at No. 66. Now, if the long list of injuries hadn't occurred at quarterback and running back, perhaps they would have exceeded expectations by a smidge. It would have still been an uphill battle, though.

Projected Record: 5.4-6.6

The number last year was 5.2, so a slight bump up. To me, this foreshadows the matchup predictor expecting West Virginia to have more trouble early on in the season than we all expect. On paper, the first half of the season is a mix of favorable/manageable matchups. If they do struggle out of the gate, it's going to be a long year because of the November gauntlet they'll have waiting for them.

Chances of Becoming Bowl Eligible: 46.5%

A little nugget here for you to chew on...since becoming a Division I head coach, Rich Rodriguez has missed a bowl game in consecutive years just once — his first two years at Michigan. In year two of stint No. 1 at WVU, he led the Mountaineers to the Continental Tire Bowl and guided the program to six straight bowl games, the last of which he wasn't there for, of course. He made the New Mexico Bowl in his first year at Arizona and became bowl-eligible in five of his six seasons there. And then at Jax State, it was two bowl trips in two years as an FBS team.

Chances of Winning Big 12: 0.7%

Yeah, this seems about right. Expecting West Virginia to perform better than Texas Tech and BYU alone is quite the stretch. Let alone other contenders such as Houston, Arizona, etc.

Chances of Making CFP: 1.4%

There's a chance the Mountaineers could make the playoffs by not winning the Big 12, but I don't see it happening. I'd put this at sub one percent, too, if I'm being honest.

Chances of Winning National Championship: 0.0%

Did you expect anything different? I mean, I firmly believe West Virginia will take a step in the right direction in 2026, but even in a scenario where they exceed expectations, it won't include making it and winning a national title. Baby steps.

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