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Power Rankings: Bad losses, missed opportunities hurting Big Ten teams' NCAA chances

Indiana, Ohio State, USC, and Wisconsin all suffered bad setbacks that hurt its NCAA Tournament profile
Benjamin Worgull|
Oregon forward Sean Stewart, center, dunks over coverage from Wisconsin forward Austin Rapp, left, and guard John Blackwell as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers on Feb. 25, 2026, at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon.
Oregon forward Sean Stewart, center, dunks over coverage from Wisconsin forward Austin Rapp, left, and guard John Blackwell as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers on Feb. 25, 2026, at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Wisconsin Badgers

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has mountains of data at its disposal to analyze each at-large team on the basis of strength of schedule, strength of wins, bad losses, and who a team beat when, where, and how.

To emphasize the point that the totality of the schedule matters, the committee officially removed the "last 10 games" metric over 15 years ago as a tool used to evaluate teams. That's not to say human nature and the eye test don't still factor in, which is bad news for teams like Indiana, Ohio State, and USC.

All three Big Ten schools are slowly and painful playing their way on to the wrong side of the bubble. Indiana had gone all season without losing a game outside Quad-1 but inexplicably lost a Quad-3 home game to three-win Northwestern. USC has dropped four straight that includes a home loss to Quad-3 Oregon.

The Buckeyes were 0-9 against Quad-1 teams until Wednesday morning, as Northwestern's upset in Bloomington vaulted the Wildcats high enough in the ratings to move the Buckeyes' four-point win in Evanston up a category. The problem is that win came in December, and Ohio State's best result since was a Quad-2 win over Wisconsin on February 17.

Speaking of the Badgers, no team has epitomized playing to their level of competition more over the past month and a half than Wisconsin. UW has looked phenomenal in Quad-1 wins over Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Michigan State and looked mediocre against bottom-half-of-the-league teams like Minnesota, USC, and its lackluster road loss at Ohio State. On Wednesday, Wisconsin made a bad Oregon team look like a No.1 seed.

UW should still be an NCAA lock, but a loss Saturday at Washington and a home loss to a bad Maryland team might see its seed spiraling, as the Big Ten is seeing the bubble start to constrict.

Here is week 16 of the Big Ten Power Rankings.

1, Michigan Wolverines (22-2, 16-1) Previous: 1

The Wolverines saw their 11-game winning streak end at the hands of Duke in Washington but rebounded with a 10-point win over Minnesota to earn a share of the conference title. A sign of the balance of Michigan's roster was Yaxel Lendeborg scoring 21 points over Duke and being held to a season-low three against the Gophers, but the Wolverines won because four others reached double figures.

Even without its explosive offense the last two games, Michigan's 89.1 points per game is seventh-best in the country and the most for the program since 1988-89.

Up Next: Friday at No.10 Illinois

2, Illinois Fighting Illini (22-6, 13-4) Previous: 2

The Illini are the second-best regulation team in the Big Ten, but those extra five minutes have not been their friend. Illinois is 0-3 in overtime this season, losing to Michigan State when it couldn't rebound, falling to Wisconsin when the Illini were down two starters, and "executed" one of the worst end-of-game defensive possessions in college basketball when they failed to stop Donovan Dent on a coast-to-coast layup in the closing seconds.

Bad luck, sure, losing four conference games by a combined nine points, but bad execution is the big culprit, especially when Illinois led UCLA, 33-10, at one point.

Up Next: Saturday at UCLA

3, Purdue Boilermakers (22-5, 12-4) Previous: 3

The Boilermakers took care of business in a revenge game against Indiana, making up for the five-point loss in Bloomington last month but pulverizing the Hoosiers by 29 at Mackey. Purdue's 93 points were its highest point total in the series since 1998, and the margin of victory was the biggest since 1969. A statement indeed.

Up Next: Tonight vs. No.13 Michigan State

4, Nebraska Cornhuskers (24-4, 13-4) Previous: 4

The Huskers rebounded from their ugly performance in Iowa City with consecutive home wins over two of the bottom teams in the league in Penn State and Maryland. They now head on the LA swing, where they will face two teams who are significantly better than the ones they just beat.

Up Next: Saturday at USC

5, Michigan State Spartans (21-5, 11-4) Previous: 6

The Spartans took care of two bubble NCAA teams at home and now set their sights on building some rhythm on the road. Michigan State is 4-3 in conference road games this season, all coming against teams with sub.500 conference records, with three of the wins against the bottom three teams in the standings.

Three of the final four conference games are on the road, all against projected NCAA Tournament teams.

Up Next: Tonight at No.8 Purdue

6, Wisconsin Badgers (19-9, 11-6) Previous: 5

The Badgers have spent the last four games alternating between the good and the bad, picking up a solid Quad-1 home win and then looking unmotivated in a Quad-2 road loss. The loss to the Ducks was the first to a sub.500 team all season for Wisconsin, which brings a concerning question for UW fans. Can the Badgers win when the three-point shot isn't falling? The answer appears to be no.

Up Next: Saturday at Washington

7, Iowa Hawkeyes (20-8, 10-7) Previous: 7

The Hawkeyes likely punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2023, erasing an early 12-point deficit to blow past Ohio State. Bennett Stirtz was his usual bucket-getting self with a game-high 22 points, but Iowa getting a season-high 20 points from Alvaro Folguiras was a massive boost.

With how weak the bubble appears to be, the committee is not going to leave out a 20-win Big Ten team that finished .500 in the league.

Up Next: Saturday at Penn State

8, UCLA Bruins (17-7, 9-4) Previous: 10

After laying an egg in the state of Michigan, the Bruins regrouped to deliver two big wins at Pauley Pavilion by erasing a 23-point deficit to beat No.10 Illinois in overtime and knock off city-rival USC on Wednesday.

Bruins guard Donovan Dent finally looked like one of the top transfers in the portal. He went coast-to-coast for the game winner against the Illini and then dropped a season-high 30 points with seven assists over the Trojans. He combined for 44 points, 22 assists, and no turnovers in those two performances.

The Bruins are likely going to be in the NCAA Tournament field, but they need to figure out how to win outside Los Angeles. UCLA is 3-8 in road and neutral site games this season with only one of those wins coming outside the Pacific Time Zone.

Up Next: Saturday at Minnesota

9, Ohio State Buckeyes (17-11, 9-8), Previous: 9

John Mobley Jr. scored 15 points after missing the last three games with a hand injury, but it wasn't enough to get the Buckeyes a Quad-1 win after they got blown out by Iowa.

Ohio State is now 1-10 in Quad-1 games, which leaves the committee with an interesting debate of how to view them against teams like Saint Louis (2-1 in Quad 1) or Santa Clara (1-4) who have better records but play in weaker conferences. Bottom line, the Buckeyes have had chances to win a lot of these top-edge games but haven't got the job done.

On Wednesday, the Buckeyes had 14 points in the first 5:09 and 43 points the rest of the way.

Ohio State's chances to get a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament are down to 22 percent, which might not be a terrible thing because it gives the Buckeyes a chance to add a quality win to a fledging profile.

Up next: Sunday vs. No.8 Purdue

10, Indiana Hoosiers (17-11, 8-9) Previous 8

There's no shame in losing at Illinois and at Purdue but there's no excuse for the Hoosiers to lose by four at home to Northwestern. Yes, there probably should have been a foul called on Tucker DeVries game-tying three-point attempt in the final seconds of regulation, but the Hoosiers went 2-for-14 on all other shots in the final 10 minutes of the game.

In the three games, the Hoosiers are losing by an averaging of 17.7 points per game, getting out rebounded by 13, and allowing teams to shoot over 51 percent from the floor. Whatever wiggle room Indiana had is now gone after losing to an 11-16 team.

Up Next: Sunday vs. No.13 Michigan State

11, USC Trojans (18-10, 7-10) Previous: 11

Four straight losses have dropped the Trojans to No.46 in the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) rankings, No.58 in KenPom, and No.63 in the NET. USC two Quad-1 wins are at Minnesota and at Wisconsin. Head coach Eric Musselman was blunt on Tuesday that the Trojans are on the outside looking in to the tournament field, which is what happens when his starting frontline goes 6-for-24 with eight turnovers against the Bruins.

Up Next: Saturday vs. No.12 Nebraska

12, Washington Huskies (14-14, 6-11) Previous: 12

The Huskies split their two road East Coast Big Ten games, rebounding from an ugly loss at Maryland to a more complete performance against Rutgers. Against the Scarlet Knights, Washington shot 50 percent as a team and 37 percent from beyond the arc, and held Rutgers to 40 percent and 21 percent, respectively. The Huskies collected 15 assists on 28-made baskets.

You can sharpie Hannes Steinbach's name on the conference's all-freshman team. He had 24 points and 16 rebounds for his 17th double-double of the season, tied for second in Division 1.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Wisconsin

13, Minnesota Gophers (13-15, 6-11) Previous: 13

The Gophers made Michigan work for a share of the conference crown, staying with four at halftime until the Wolverines went 9-for-18 from three in the second half. Minnesota's Cade Tyson scored 20 points, Langston Reynolds had 15 points and Isaac Asuma and Bobby Durkin scored 12 apiece, as the Gophers continue to operate with a skeleton six-man crew with all in injuries.

They have a chance to play spoiler this week against a UCLA team that has struggled to win outside the West Coast.

Up Next: Saturday vs. UCLA

14, Northwestern Wildcats (12-16, 4-13) Previous: 15

Nick Martinelli took 21 shot attempts at Indiana, one more than the other four starters combined, and delivered with 28 points to shock the Hoosiers. The senior had 21 of Northwestern's 38 second-half points to erase an 11-point halftime deficit, scoring nine straight NU points in one stretch to give them a four-point lead.

Jake West added 16 to spread out Indiana's defense just enough for the Wildcats to land a gut punch to IU's resume and potentially keep the NU out of day one of the Big Ten Tournament.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Oregon

15, Oregon Ducks (11-17, 4-13) Previous: 17

Nate Bittle had 20 points, six rebounds and five assists, leading four Oregon players in double figures in knocking off Wisconsin in its biggest win of the season. It's the first time the Ducks have won consecutive games since late December and the first time they've beaten consecutive power conference schools all season.

Up Next: Saturday at Northwestern

16, Maryland Terrapins (11-17, 4-13) Previous: 16

The Terps are 3-3 in their last six games and had a nice home win over Washington. Andre Mills scored 21 points, including scoring 10 of the Terrapins' final 13 points over the last 6:24 of the game. That performance comes after his career-high 39 points against Northwestern.

Up next: Sunday vs. Rutgers

17, Rutgers Scarlet Knights (11-17, 4-13): Previous: 14

The best finish Rutgers can hope for is a tie for 11th in the league, meaning the Scarlet Knights will have finished 11th or worse eight times in the 12 years they've been in the league. Rutgers has had only one 20-win season in the last 20 years. As luck would have it, it was 2020 when the postseason was canceled.

Up Next: Sunday at Maryland

18, Penn State Nittany Lions (11-17, 2-15) Previous: 18

The Nittany Lions have had the week off following their blowout loss at Nebraska to prepare for the stretch run, where they will host two teams on the NCAA bubble in Iowa and Ohio State before facing East Coast rival Rutgers.

Up Next: Saturday vs. Iowa

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Benjamin Worgull
BENJAMIN WORGULL

Benjamin Worgull has covered Wisconsin men's basketball since 2004, having previously written for Rivals, USA Today, 247sports, Fox Sports, the Associated Press, the Janesville Gazette, and the Wisconsin State Journal.

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