Short-handed Wisconsin needs to deliver a stellar rebounding effort to neutralize Illinois

Reaching 23 wins for the fourth time under head coach Greg Gard and the 15th time in program history, Wisconsin looks for its third straight appearance in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals when the fifth-seeded Badgers face fourth-seeded Illinois this afternoon.

The Badgers’ 33 Big Ten tournament wins and .579 win pct. both rank fourth in the conference, trailing only Michigan State, Illinois and Ohio State. Illinois' 35 Big Ten wins, four tournament championships, and eight title-game appearances all rank third in conference history, while the IIllini's 14 semifinal appearances are tied for the second-most with ... Wisconsin.

Here is a look at both teams and a prediction for this afternoon's contest.

No.23 Wisconsin (23-9, 14-6 Big Ten) vs. No.9 Illinois (24-7, 15-5 Big Ten)

Date/Time – Friday, March 13, 1:30 p.m.

Arena – United Center

TV – Big Ten Network (Jeff Levering, Don MacLean, Rick Pizzo)

Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch)

Coaches - Greg Gard at Wisconsin (236-126 in his 11th season). Brad Underwood at Illinois (189-108 in his second year; 289-135 in his 13th season)

Series – Illinois leads 118-92; 4-3 in neutral sites

Point Spread – Illinois -7.5

Wisconsin probable starters

2 Nick Boyd (6-3 Senior Guard, 20.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.1 apg)

7 Andrew Rohde (6-6 Senior Guard, 5.9 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg)

25 John Blackwell (6-4 Junior Guard, 18.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.3 apg)

22 Austin Rapp (6-10 Sophomore Forward, 9.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.6 apg)

32 Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10 Freshman Forward, 4.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.7 apg)

Off the bench

0 Braeden Carrington (6-5 Senior Guard, 8.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.1 apg)

23 Will Garlock (7-0 Freshman Center, 1.1 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.7 apg)

Player to watch

Blackwell posted a Wisconsin Big Ten Tournament record 34 points to go with 10 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals in Thursday's win over Washington. His 34 points also matched the third-highest total in the event.

Another challenge awaits

📝 https://t.co/Jd4HIcoq97 pic.twitter.com/O91WbPwIe3
— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) March 13, 2026

Illinois probable starters

0 David Mirkovic (6-9 Freshman Forward, 13.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.5 apg)

4 Kylan Boswell (6-2 Senior Guard, 13.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.4 apg)

13 Tomislav Ivisic (7-1 Junior Center, 10.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.6 apg)

15 Jake Davis (6-6 Junior Forward, 5.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 0.7 apg)

23 Keaton Wagler (6-6 Freshman Guard, 17.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.3 apg)

Off the bench

2 Andrej Stojakovic (6-7 Junior Guard, 13.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 apg)

3 Ben Humrichous (6-9 Graduate Forward, 6.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.8 apg)

44 Zvonimir Ivisic (7-2 Junior Center, 6.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.3 apg)

Player to watch

A first-team all-conference selection and the unanimous Big Ten freshman of the year, Wagler has scored in double-figures in 23 consecutive games. During that stretch, he is averaging a team-leading 19.4 points per game, and ranks fourth in rebounding at 4.8 boards per contest, while shooting 45.1% (133-295) overall, 42.6% (63-148) from 3-point range, and 80.7% (117-145) from the free-throw line. Wagler also leads the team with 116 assists and 23 steals during that stretch.

Step 1.

📆 March 13
🏆 Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals
🆚 [5] Wisconsin
⏰ Approx. 1:30 p.m. CT
📍 United Center
📺 Big Ten Network pic.twitter.com/8UB3wTUcYe
— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) March 12, 2026

Series notes

This series has been filled with streaks. Prior to UW's last two wins, Illinois owned a nine-game win streak, but that stretch followed a 15-game win streak by Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019.

Wisconsin's 15 consecutive wins over Illinois marked the longest all-time win streak of any team against the Illini.

Head coach Greg Gard owns a mark of 9-9 against Illinois.

John Blackwell has scored in double figures in each of the last 3 meetings with Illinois, including 24 points (5-11 3FGs) in this season's earlier meeting. Blackwell, averaging 16.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg and 2.7 apg over those three games.

The Badgers are 4-1 all-time against No. 4 seeds, winning each of their last four. Illinois is 6-0 in the BTT vs. No. 5 seeds.

Wisconsin notes

Wisconsin's 85 points against Washington are the school's fourth-highest mark in a Big Ten Tournament game.

UW made 15 3-pointers, which ranks third on the school's single-game BTT list.

The Badgers dished out 19 assists, which ranks third in the program's BTT history.

The Badgers turned the ball over just six times on Wednesday, improving to 20-2 on the season with 10 or fewer TOs. UW has had 8 or fewer turnovers in 9 of the last 11 games.

Illinois notes

Illinois has seven Quad 1 wins, tied for 12th in the NCAA (through games played March 9). Six of Illinois' seven wins in this category are Quad 1A, tied for third-most in the nation behind Duke (9) and Michigan (8).

Illinois leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (132.0). The Illini are likely to have a top-15 offense for the third straight season after ranking third in 2024 (125.5) and 14th last year (121.9).

Illinois went 10-4 away from home this season, and 8-2 in true road games - all in Big Ten play - to tie the program record for most B1G road wins.

Illinois is first in the nation in defensive free throw rate (19.8), and second in fewest fouls per game (13.1).

Prediction

It's now Wisconsin's turn in the series to compete shorthanded.

After the Badgers took advantage of the absences of Big Ten All-Defensive Team guard Kylan Boswell and junior guard Andrej Stojakovic in UW's 92-90 win in Champaign, they will be facing the Illini with, at best, a less-than-100-percent Nolan Winter and without reserve guard Jack Janicki. It's unknown whether Winter will play as he recovers from a left ankle injury suffered on March 4, but it appears unlikely.

Wisconsin being without its best rebounder has been problematic for the Badgers in the last two games, particularly when it comes to offensive rebounds. After Purdue had 16 last Saturday, Washington had 20 on Thursday, the top two totals against UW all season. The Huskies finished +16 on the glass, +8 on the offensive glass, +9 on second-chance points, and +16 in points in the paint. It's a minor miracle UW won when giving up those numbers.

In the win in Champaign, UW outrebounded Illinois, 14-8, on the offensive glass, which helped them be +2 in second-chance points. That difference was enough and an eye sore to the Illini, considering the eight offensive rebounds were the fewest by them all season.

Not only does Wisconsin have to contend with Boswell, Wagler and Davis, who is shooting 40 percent from three over the last 13 games, but the Badgers have to figure out a way to defend 7-1 Tomislav Ivisic on the perimeter (97 three-pointers) and outmanuevered 7-2 Zvonimir Ivisic on the low block (fourth nationally in block rate at 13.2%) without their best low-post player.

UW might need to live around the perimeter again, making enough shots to open up driving lanes to spread out Illinois' defense, which has not been consistent since the Badgers last saw them.

Wisconsin knows this game will be a fight and will require more energy and effort than Thursday, especially in the second half. UW will have to make shots and have a great rebounding effort to win. I don't know if they can do it without Winter, which creates a bad matchup for Wisconsin.

Prediction: Illinois by 15

Worgull's Prediction: 23-9 (17-15 ATS)

Points off Prediction: 384 (12.0 ppg)