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Wisconsin Badgers looking for 'Less' and 'Ness' to show up tonight vs. No.10 Michigan State

Wisconsin is going for consecutive top-10 victories when the Badgers host No.10 Michigan State tonight at the Kohl Center.
Benjamin Worgull|
Mar 15, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nolan Winter (31) shoots the ball while Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Mar 15, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Nolan Winter (31) shoots the ball while Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

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Wisconsin Badgers

After going on the road to defeat No.8 Illinois on Tuesday night, Wisconsin faces another stiff test tonight when the Badgers host No.10 Michigan State at the Kohl Center.

It's the first time in a decade that the Badgers have faced top-10 teams in back-to-back games, dating back to when UW defeated No. 2 Maryland 70-57 on Feb. 13, 2016 and fell to No. 8 Michigan State 69-47 on Feb. 18, 2016.

The Badgers are hoping history doesn't repeat after they overcame a 12-point second-half deficit to knock off the Illini, 92-90, in overtime in Champaign. It allowed UW to join an exclusive list, becoming one of seven teams with multiple top-10 wins this season.

UW is trying to beat three top-10 teams in back-to-back years, while the Spartans are looking to become one of four teams to have earned eight Quad-1 wins this season.

Here is a look at both teams, along with a prediction for tonight's contest.


No.10 Michigan State (20-4, 10-3 Big Ten) vs. Wisconsin (17-7, 9-4 Big Ten)

Date/Time - Friday, February 13, 7 p.m.
Arena – Kohl Center
TV – FOX (Jason Benetti and Steve Smith)
Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch)
Coaches - Greg Gard at Wisconsin (230-124 in his 11th season). Tom Izzo (757-306 in his 31st season)
Series – Michigan State leads 87-70; UW leads 48-28 in Madison
Point Spread – Michigan State -1.5

Wisconsin probable starters

2 Nick Boyd (6-3 Senior Guard, 20.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.7 apg)
7 Andrew Rohde (6-6 Senior Guard, 6.4 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.7 apg)
25 John Blackwell (6-4 Junior Guard, 18.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.3 apg)
31 Nolan Winter (6-11 Junior Forward, 13.9 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.7 apg)
32 Aleksas Bieliauskas (6-10 Freshman Forward, 4.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 0.7 apg)
Off the bench
0 Braeden Carrington (6-5 Senior Guard, 7.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 0.9 apg)
5 Jack Janicki (6-5 Sophomore Guard, 2.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.2 apg)
22 Austin Rapp (6-10 Sophomore Forward, 9.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.7 apg)
23 Will Garlock (7-0 Freshman Center, 1.1 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 0.9 apg)
Player to watch
Rapp poured in 18 points off the bench, nailing four triples, and is averaging 18.5 points over his last two games. The Badgers hit 16 three-balls in the game, a season-best and the team's most ever in a road game.

Michigan State probable starters

0 Jaxon Kohler (6-10 Senior Forward, 12.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.2 apg)
1 Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2 R-Sophomore Guard, 15.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 9.1 apg)
6 Jordan Scott (6-8 Freshman Guard, 5.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.9 apg)
15 Carson Cooper (6-11 Senior Center, 10.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.5 apg)
55 Coen Carr (6-6 Junior Forward, 11.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Off the bench
2 Kur Teng (6-5 Sophomore Guard, 6.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.0 apg)
3 Cam Ward (6-9 Freshman Forward, 5.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.3 apg)
9 Trey Fort (6-9 Senior Guard, 4.2 ppg, 1.2 rpg, 0.6 apg)
Player to watch
Fears has seven double-doubles and 10 games with at least 10 assists. He ranks first in Division I with 9.1 assists per game and has handed out a nation-best 219 total assists.

Series notes

Wisconsin and Michigan State split its two meetings last season. The Spartans won the only regular season meeting, 71-62, in East Lansing on March 2nd, but Wisconsin claimed a 77-74 win in the semifinals of the 2025 Big Ten Tournament 13 days later.

Michigan State dominated the rivalry early, but the arrival of Bo Ryan and Greg Gard in the 2001 season has essentially deadlocked the series. Prior to 2001-02: MSU led, 63-47. Since 2001-02: MSU leads, 24-23

Tonight will mark the 54th meeting between Wisconsin and Michigan State since 2000, the Badgers’ most-played opponent in that span (Illinois is next at 50 meetings). Wisconsin and Michigan State have met in the postseason 12 times over that span.

The Badgers and Spartans have split the last two four meetings in Madison.

At least 1 of the 2 teams has been ranked in each of the last 45 meetings. The last game in which both were unranked was a 64-53 Wisconsin win on Feb. 11, 2003.

The Badgers have recorded seven wins over a top-10-ranked Michigan State team since Bo Ryan and Greg Gard arrived in Madison, going 7-11 in such games. Prior to that 2001-02 season, Wisconsin was 1-13 against the Spartans.

Wisconsin notes

UW's 83.3 points per game average ranks third in the Big Ten and would be the third-best mark in school history. Wisconsin is a perfect 15-0 when scoring 80+ points this season and has a school-record 10 games of at least 90 points.

The Badgers enter Friday averaging 11.0 3-pointers per game, which ranks second in the Big Ten and 11th nationally. UW's single-season record for threes per game is 9.9, set last season.

UW has overcome 10-point deficits in five of its victories in 2026 - at No.2 Michigan (Jan. 10), at Minnesota (Jan. 13), vs. Minnesota (Jan. 28), vs. Ohio State (Jan. 31), and at No. 8 Illinois (Feb. 10). UW's five double-digit comebacks are tied with Kentucky for most in the country.

Wisconsin is second in the Big Ten and eighth in the country in turnover percentage with a 13.2 percent clip. In 2026, UW is averaging only 7.9 turnovers per game.

Michigan State notes

The Spartans have seven Quad 1 wins, one of only nine schools with at least six, and a combined 11 wins over Quad 1, one of only 14 schools nationally with at least 10 among Q1/2.

Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring defense (65.6 ppg) and leads the league in conference games, allowing just 64.8 ppg.

Outside of Scott, Michigan State's projected starting lineup has accounted for 62.5 percent of the team's points (1,186 of 1,899), 59.6 percent of the team's rebounds (592 of 993) and 70.1 percent of the team's assists (316 of 451).

The Spartans are averaging 16.8 fast break points per game this year, No. 15 nationally and tops in the Big Ten.

Prediction

Less and Ness showed up and came to play in Champaign for the University of Wisconsin on Tuesday.

Illinois is the tallest team in the nation, with an average height of 79.5 inches (Kenpom), tied for first nationally with six players averaging at least four rebounds, outrebounded 20 of 24 opponents, and ranked sixth nationally in rebounding margin (+10.6).

Wisconsin outmuscled them on the offensive glass, securing 14 offensive rebounds that led to 12 second-chance points. It was the most offensive rebounds against Illinois in more than nine years. Just as important, UW limited Illinois to eight offensive rebounds.

That edge on the glass led to UW controlling the paint, outscoring Illinois 34-32, and making extra effort plays that helped them attempt 16 more shots.

Gard preached fearless, relentless, toughness, and togetherness before tip-off, all traits needed to be exceptional on the glass.

"We did a good job of meeting them not underneath the rim or in the charge circle. We initiate contact for the most part. it took a group effort. It's not just your big guys. We had other guys come in and clean up some batted balls and tipped balls.

"Rebounding is still an effort category. Technique is great to talk about, but you really can throw it out the window when it comes to a point in time. What's underneath the hood in terms of desire and the want to make sure you minimize how many second shots they get."

Gard said Illinois was at .72 in points per possession after an offensive rebound leading into the week, significantly better than UW's .49. Third on that list? Michigan State at .43, which shouldn't be surprising considering its +6.8 rebounding margin per game is the second-best in Division 1 over the last 20 seasons.

The Spartans rank second nationally in rebounding margin (+13.1), benefiting from an experienced frontline of veterans. Of the 10 teams currently ranked in the top 10, Michigan State is the only school whose top four players in terms of minutes were on the roster a season ago.

That experience allows players like Kohler (27th nationally in rebounds per game), Cooper (10th in the Big Ten in rpg), and Coen (6.7 rpg last six games) to be forces on the glass. UW knows it, considering Kohler had 16 rebounds against them in East Lansing last year, and Cooper had 10 boards in the Big Ten Tournament.

That trio contributes to them ranking 19th in scoring defense (65.6 ppg) and fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Spartans aren't a great shooting team, ranking 76th in field goal percentage (47.1), 106th in effective FG percentage (.535), and 139th in three-point shooting (34.8), but their ability to rebound and defend allows them to push.

Michigan State leads the league and is 12th nationally with 17.0 fast-break points per game (just over five more than UW averages per game). Fears' ability to facilitate makes the Spartans dangerous when they push, especially when Coen is on the court. His 85.0 field goal percentage in transition (34-for-40) ranks eighth nationally.

Bottom line is less and ness are going to have to show up tonight.

If UW can replicate its performance from Tuesday with its aggression on the glass, be sound on the perimeter, and improve its efficiency finishing at the rim, there's no reason why UW can't win tonight.

Prediction: Wisconsin by four
Worgull's Prediction: 18-6 (13-11 ATS)
Points off Prediction: 257 (10.7 ppg)

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Benjamin Worgull
BENJAMIN WORGULL

Benjamin Worgull has covered Wisconsin men's basketball since 2004, having previously written for Rivals, USA Today, 247sports, Fox Sports, the Associated Press, the Janesville Gazette, and the Wisconsin State Journal.

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