Wisconsin, First Place, and Big Ten Tournament Tiebreakers: March 6 Edition

OK, let's figure this whole Big Ten Tournament seeding out.

In Columbus on Thursday evening, No. 19 Ohio State improved to 16-2 at home this season after taking down No. 23 Illinois.

That allowed No. 24 Wisconsin, No. 16 Michigan State and No. 9 Maryland to stay in a three-way tie for first place in the Big Ten standings at 13-6 with one game to play in the regular season. Illinois now sits just one game back at 12-7.

The Fighting Illini still have a shot at a share of the Big Ten title, for that matter, if the Badgers, Spartans and Terps all lose this upcoming weekend and Brad Underwood's program beats the Iowa Hawkeyes in Champaign on Sunday.

AllBadgers.com looked at the Big Ten tiebreaker rules for the tournament, and here are some scenarios for Wisconsin heading into its regular season finale at Indiana.

Wisconsin Ties for First Place in Regular Season

If Wisconsin and Michigan State Tie for First Place

Wisconsin would need to defeat Indiana in Bloomington on Saturday and have the following happen on Sunday:

Maryland lose to Michigan at home
Michigan State beat Ohio State at home

Big Ten rules dictate the following for two programs tied heading into the tournament:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.

2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

Both Wisconsin and Michigan State split the season series with home wins, so we go to No. 2 on the tiebreaker guidelines. With that, a couple of factors come into play:

If Maryland and Illinois tie for third place = MSU No. 1 seed, Wisconsin No. 2 seed

Michigan State record vs. Maryland (1-1)/Illinois (2-0): 3-1
Wisconsin record vs. Maryland (1-0)/Illinois (0-1): 1-1

If Maryland stands in third place just by itself = Wisconsin No. 1 seed

Michigan State record vs. Maryland: 1-1
Wisconsin record vs. Maryland: 1-0

If Wisconsin and Maryland Tie for First Place

Wisconsin would need to defeat Indiana in Bloomington on Saturday, then have the following happen on Sunday:

Maryland beat Michigan at home
Michigan State lose to Ohio State at home

Going with the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Badgers defeated the Terps inside the Kohl Center on Jan. 14.

Therefore, UW would receive the No. 1 seed.

If Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan State Tie for First Place

OK, if all three win their final games, or all three lose and Illinois goes down in defeat at home as well, Wisconsin would still get the No. 1 seed. How?

According to the Big Ten's tiebreaker rules for multiple teams, seeds are determined by the following first two steps:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.

a. When comparing records against the tied teams, teams will be seeded based on winning percentage among the group, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). If all teams among the group are separated based on winning percentage, all ties are broken. If winning percentage among the group for any tied teams is equal, move to step b with those specific tied teams only (e.g. if there is a four-team tie, one team is 4-0, another is 3-1 and the last two are 2-2 among the group, the two teams that are 2-2 move to step b and the teams that are 4-0 and 3-1 assume the next two available highest seeds).

Note: Teams can be separated from the top, middle or bottom.

b. If a team or teams are separated from the group based on step a, seeding for remaining teams among the group is not determined by head-to-head record vs. the remaining teams, but rather by taking all remaining teams to next tie breaker.

When comparing records against the tied teams, teams will be seeded based on winning percentage among the group, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). If all teams among the group are separated based on winning percentage, all ties are broken.

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.

b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

We do not need to go to step "b" for the first tiebreaker guideline here, as UW holds the best winning percentage:

Wisconsin vs. MSU (1-1)/Maryland (1-0): 2-1
Michigan State vs. UW (1-1) /Maryland (1-1): 2-2
Maryland vs. UW (0-1)/MSU (1-1): 1-2

If Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State AND Illinois Tie for First Place

So all three current conference leaders fall in their final game, and the Fighting Illini tame the Hawkeyes at home on Sunday. Those four finish at 13-7 for the Big Ten regular season. What happens then?

Wisconsin would become the No. 3 seed in this scenario.

Again, we apply the multiple-team tiebreaker rules as seen with the potential three-way tie hypothesized above:

Wisconsin vs. MSU(1-1)/Maryland (1-0)/Illinois (0-1): 2-2
Michigan State vs. UW(1-1)/Maryland (1-1)/Illinois (2-0): 4-2
Maryland vs. UW (0-1)/MSU (1-1)/Illinois (2-0): 3-2
Illinois vs. UW (1-0)/MSU (0-2)/Maryland (0-2): 1-4

What if Wisconsin Does Not Finish in First Place or Tied for First in the Big Ten?

Welp, here would be the scenarios and how UW could be placed (which is no worse than fourth with Penn State and Iowa losing earlier this week and Wisconsin beating Northwestern):

Michigan State and Maryland win, claiming first place; Wisconsin and Illinois lose: Wisconsin receives the No. 3 seed just based on being alone in third place in conference standings
Michigan State and Maryland win, claiming first place; Wisconsin loses and Illinois wins (placing Wisconsin and Illinois in a tie for third place): Wisconsin receives the No. 4 seed due to head-to-head competition with Illinois. That loss to the Fighting Illini in January stings here.
Michigan State wins, Maryland, Wisconsin and Illinois lose: Wisconsin receives the No. 2 seed due to head-to-head competition advantage with Maryland in their tie for second-place in the conference standings.
Maryland wins, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois lose: Maryland gets No. 1 seed, and MSU and UW are tied for second-place. This goes back to the same guidelines as if the Spartans and Badgers tie for first place. They split the regular season series, but then you look at how both programs fared against Maryland. UW receives the No. 2 seed because of its better record against the Terps (1-0 by Bucky, 1-1 by Sparty).
Maryland wins, Michigan State and Wisconsin lose, and Illinois wins: Maryland gets the No. 1 seed outright, and then there is a three-way tie for second between the Spartans, Badgers and Fighting Illini. Based on the multiple-team tiebreaker rules noted previously, Sparty gets the No. 2 seed for having the best record out of the group (3-1). Both UW and Illinois hold 1-2 marks, but the Badgers receive the No. 3 seed since they hold the better record over the Terps.

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