3 Bold Predictions for Wisconsin's Showdown With No. 13 Penn State

For the second time in the Luke Fickell tenure, Wisconsin football will open up Big Ten play with a marquee clash on the road against the No. 13 team in the nation.

In 2024, the Badgers fell to 13th-ranked USC in Los Angeles after walking into the halftime locker room with a 21-10 lead. They'll hope that two years later, they can finish what they started and topple a top-15 team in their home venue to kick off conference play.

Just like two years ago against the Trojans, it'll be no small feat to start Big Ten play 1-0. On top of what still looks like a loaded Penn State team post-James Franklin, Wisconsin must contend with one of the nation's most unforgiving road venues.

As the Badgers gear up to try and pull off the big upset, here's three bold predictions for Saturday evening in Happy Valley:

Wisconsin creates the first Penn State turnovers — yes, plural — of 2026

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Penn State has yet to give the ball away through three games, one of 12 FBS programs that can make that claim. The Nittany Lions have fumbled three times, but fortuitously recovered each of them.

There's an old saying that turnovers come in bunches, and they sure did for Wisconsin's defense last week. After failing to force a turnover through two games, the Badgers picked off Eastern Michigan quarterback Noah Kim twice and also strip-sacked him. Again, Penn State has yet to give the ball away, but that just means they're due; turnovers can come in bunches for offenses, too.

Quarterback Rocco Becht has done a tremendous job taking care of the ball, and Pro Football Focus has credited him with zero "turnover-worthy plays" thus far. I'd push back on that slightly as he did fumble the ball against Buffalo, but the point remains that he's done an excellent job keeping the ball out of harm's way.

Regardless, Penn State has surrendered a sack each game and the Badgers' pass rush, while it hasn't racked up the sacks, has done a solid job generating pressure, particularly outside backer Sebastian Cheeks, who's tied for fourth nationally with 14 pressures already this season. The Badgers should have a solid chance to separate Becht from the football or force him into a bad decision.

If Wisconsin wants to pull off this upset, forcing a turnover — and likely multiple — is probably a non-negotiable.

The Badgers have their best rushing performance yet

Wisconsin running back Darrion Dupree. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Wisconsin knows its going to need to be able to run the ball Saturday evening for a plethora of reasons.

First of all, it's one of the basic rules of winning a game in a hostile environment: ball control and winning at the line of scrimmage.

But besides the obvious, the Badgers know they can't put this game entirely on Colton Joseph. While he played well last week to the tune of 408 total yards and four touchdowns, he threw an ugly interception and remains good for one or two extremely poor (or, as Pro Football Focus might call them, "turnover-worthy") decisions each game.

What's more, while Penn State's pass defense has been elite — it's the only program in the country currently allowing fewer than 100 passing yards per game — its run defense hasn't been quite as dominant. They currently clock in at No. 35 nationally, allowing 111 yards per game. Still, it allowed Temple to run for 176 yards, with the Owls' mobile quarterback Jackson Smolik accounting for 71 of them. Now, it has to contend with the legs of Colton Joseph.

The impending return of Badgers running back Abu Sama only makes me feel better about this prediction. It'll be hard to statistically top the 233 rushing yards the Badgers recorded against Western Illinois, but 104 of those came on two plays. Wisconsin could run for less yards and its ground game could still look much better.

Kicker Gavin Lahm hits a new career-long field goal

Wisconsin Badgers kicker Gavin Lahm. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Place-kicker Gavin Lahm has been a revelation for the Badgers. Prior to this season, he had yet to attempt a collegiate extra point or field goal. Through three games, he's a perfect 7-of-7 on field goals with one missed extra point that Fickell blamed on the snap and/or hold.

His long this season is a 51-yarder he drilled with room to spare against Western Illinois. He's always had a big leg, but his touch has been impressive as well. He clearly has the capacity to hit field goals in the 50-55 yard range, and I think he'll get a chance to hit a new career long against the Nittany Lions.

Despite what's clearly an improved offense for Wisconsin, the Badgers have struggled to finish drives at times, especially when the explosive plays don't come in bunches. Against a good Penn State defense, it's easy to see a handful of drives stalling out in fringe field goal range. Enter Lahm, who I see nailing another 50-plus yarder in Happy Valley.

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