Advanced Analytics Give Wisconsin Razor-Thin Advantage in Huge Clash With Iowa

Advanced stats are just as torn on this game as most of us are.

The line of scrimmage between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers. | USA TODAY Sports

There's a lot of reasons why Wisconsin versus Iowa is one of the most intriguing rivalries in college football.

First of all, there's the history. These teams played for the first time in 1894 and have totaled 99 matchups in the series; Saturday on Halloween will be the 100th meeting between these bitter rivals.

There's the physical proximity, as the two states share a 140-mile border. There's the cultural proximity: cold winters, cold beer and cold football.

There's also the Heartland Trophy itself, a glorious 72-pound brass bull that the teams have battled for since 2004.

But perhaps the most intriguing thing about this rivalry is the two programs' stylistic proximity. Both teams would like nothing more than to run the ball down your throat while playing suffocating defense, and both are perfectly happy with an ugly, old-school 13-10 win.

Iowa Hawkeyes offensive lineman Logan Jones (65) and offensive lineman Mason Richman (78) carry the Heartland trophy. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

2026 will be no different. Both teams boast stifling defenses (the Badgers have the No. 13 total defense in the country, the Hawkeyes check in at No. 14) and both teams lean heavily on their ground games (Wisconsin runs the ball on 56% of its plays, Iowa runs the ball 55% of the time). Iowa has two struggling quarterbacks it can't decide between, while Wisconsin has a quarterback who's only thrown for 124 yards over the past two games combined.

Essentially, these teams have the exact same strengths and weaknesses; picking this game is exceedingly difficult.

However, advanced analytics give Wisconsin the narrowest of edges against Iowa:

can't believe i left it off the original tweet, apologies https://t.co/1s7TyxOoRl pic.twitter.com/8aZZj31Yf9

— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 29, 2026

Advanced stats narrowly favor Wisconsin

Parker Fleming of Dropback HQ posted his weekly advanced stats breakdown, and his model gives Wisconsin a 50.8% chance to beat Iowa, with a projected final score of 16.8 to 16.5. Interestingly enough, that was the exact same percentage the model gave the Badgers last week against USC, and of course, it picked the winner correctly.

Dive a little deeper, and the numbers mirror what you'd expect. Iowa's defense has a massive advantage over the Badgers' offense, and Wisconsin's defense has a significant upper-hand over the Hawkeyes' offense.

Still, there's a few key areas that seem to push the Badgers over the top. Again, both programs boast elite defenses, but Wisconsin's defensive EPA (expected points added) ranks No. 5 nationally as opposed to Iowa's 21st. Both units have been lockdown, but the Hawkeyes are ever so slightly more permeable.

That shows up in the pass game as well, as Iowa's defensive EPA per drop-back ranks No. 23, while Wisconsin's ranks No. 5. The Badgers also have the slightly better rushing offense in terms of EPA, much of which can be attributed to quarterback Colton Joseph's legs. Iowa's running game is more one-dimensional; the Hawkeyes don't run their quarterback.

Again, a lot of these margins are incredibly statistically narrow, and Wisconsin's slim 50.8% chance to win tells you everything you need to know about how hard-fought this game will be. Still, the advanced numbers give the Badgers the edge, however slight it may be.