Advanced Stats Paint Clear Picture of How Wisconsin Should Perform vs. Michigan State

Wisconsin football is riding high coming off the defining win of the Luke Fickell tenure, a stunning 17-point comeback on the road against the No. 13 Penn State Nittany Lions.

The Badgers now sit at 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big Ten play. But despite finally breaking through and taking down a top team in a meaningful game, Wisconsin is expected to be in a narrow contest with Michigan State in its homecoming game.

The Badgers are just 9.5-point favorites over the Spartans on FanDuel Sportsbook, still two-score favorites but clearly not expected to make short work of a Michigan State team that just got blown out at home by Nebraska.

That may be surprising considering Wisconsin just toppled the No. 13 team in the country while playing horrific offense for much of the game. But diving into the advanced stats, they tend to agree with Vegas in that while the Badgers should win this game, we shouldn't necessarily expect a blowout.

Dropback HQ's Parker Fleming posted his weekly advanced stats previews for Week 5, and Wisconsin's tilt with Michigan State was included.

Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Liberty @ Delaware
Cal @ UNLV
Louisville @ NC State pic.twitter.com/0VnxQ0mx5i
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 30, 2026

Wisconsin is given a 74.5 percent chance to win according to Fleming's model, which incorporates a litany of advanced offensive and defensive metrics. Still, the Badgers are given a projected score of 27.0, while the Spartans' final score projection sits at 16.3. That point differential, of course, if awfully similar to the 9.5-point spread Vegas envisions for this game.

It's interesting that analytics folks and are on the exact same page as oddsmakers in terms of the outcome of this game. Below, Badgers On SI breaks down a few key advanced stats that jump off the page.

Defensive success rate

The biggest difference on paper between the Badgers and the Spartans is Wisconsin's elite defense compared to Michigan State's middling defense. Wisconsin's defensive success rate of 36.0% ranks 11th in the country. It's particularly strong against the run, with a 33.3% success rate against the rush, good for 9th nationally.

The Spartans' overall defensive success rate, meanwhile, is 46.1%, or 80th in the country. Michigan State looks especially vulnerable against the run, where its 48.0% success rate checks in at 95th nationally.

Offensive success rate

Michigan State boasts a slightly higher offensive success rate than the Badgers at 48.9% (36th nationally) compared to Wisconsin's 45.2% (74th nationally). However, there's a few things I'd chalk that up to.

First of all, the Badgers have played two elite defenses in Notre Dame and Penn State. Michigan State has also played Notre Dame, of course, but overall, Wisconsin has faced a tougher slate of defenses. What's more, a lot of the Spartans' respectable offensive success rate is carried by their ground game, which has taken a serious blow as their top tailback Cam Edwards is now out for the remainder of the season.

Overall, this is simply a fortuitous matchup for the Badgers. Their so-far mediocre offense gets to face a mediocre to straight-up bad defense, while Wisconsin's defense thrives at shutting down the area of offense (running game) where Michigan State has found the most success.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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