Spread & Over/Under Predictions for Wisconsin vs. Michigan State

The Badgers opened up Big Ten play on the road as 9.5-point underdogs in Week 4.

After a thrilling upset win over No. 13 Penn State, Wisconsin now sees the other side of the same coin: the Badgers are now 9.5-point home favorites against the visiting Michigan State Spartans.

As Wisconsin looks to win its fourth straight game and start off Big Ten play 2-0 — matching its conference win total from last season — before its lone bye week, here's my spread and over/under picks for Week 5, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread: Wisconsin -9.5

Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After the Badgers just upset a top-15 team on the road, with Michigan State coming off a home blowout loss to Nebraska, this spread might seem a little disrespectful to Wisconsin on first glance. But I understand why Vegas expects a close game.

First of all, Wisconsin's offense was largely ineffective for the majority of the game in Beaver Stadium. Now, the Nittany Lions have a stout and talented defense and still boast the No. 9 total defense in the country even after the loss last week. But if Colton Joseph continues to give the ball away at the rate he has (his eight "turnover-worthy plays" are tied for third-worst in the country, per Pro Football Focus), Michigan State could steal some possessions and make this game closer than it should be on paper.

Of course, the flip side to that is the Spartans' defense has just one interception this season and their quarterback Alessio Milivojevic isn't too far behind Joseph with seven turnover-worthy plays himself.

As arrogant as it may sound, if Wisconsin had held onto the ball and managed to establish the run Saturday in Beaver Stadium, it could've beaten Penn State more handily with the way its defense played completely lights out. Joseph is probably good for another what-in-the-world-was-that turnover or two, but given Milivojevic's equally lackadaisical ball security, the Badgers' defense should be able to come up with some takeaways of their own.

What's more, Michigan State's run defense is far less intimidating than that of the Nittany Lions. The Spartans rank No. 63 nationally, allowing 124 rushing yards per game. They've been solid but not great, and the two Power Four programs they've faced (Notre Dame and Nebraska) ran for 161 and 157 yards, respectively.

Again, I understand why the spread is somewhat narrow; the Badgers still have plenty of question marks despite the huge Week 4 win. But I see Wisconsin being able to control this game if it can run the ball a little better and Joseph's knack for turnovers even just regresses to the mean.

Prediction: Wisconsin -9.5

Total: 43.5

Michigan State’s Alessio Milivojevic. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Last week, the under just hit (the total was set at 44.5; the final score was 24-20). I foresee another good day for the under Saturday, especially if the Badgers' defense comes to play like it did in Happy Valley.

Simply put, Wisconsin's defensive performance against Penn State was perhaps the best defensive tape I've watched since the Luke Fickell era began, especially when you factor in the opponent and the environment. The Badgers set the tone the entire time and gave the Nittany Lions practically nothing. They truly couldn't move the ball outside of one or two isolated drives that resulted in field goals.

The Spartans' offense, meanwhile, has left a lot to be desired. Again, Milivojevic has been mistake prone, and with their best offensive player, tailback Cam Edwards, out for the year, the ground game just suffered a significant blow as well.

I think Wisconsin can hold Michigan State to 10-14 points Saturday. And while Michigan State's defense has been nothing to write home about, I'm not convinced Wisconsin will be able to march up and down the field at will as the Badgers still need to figure out their ground game and turnover issues. With that being said, Wisconsin should still manage to put some comfortable distance between itself and the Spartans even without pouring on the points.

Prediction: Under 43.5

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