Is Wisconsin vs. USC a Bigger Game for Luke Fickell or Lincoln Riley?

Saturday night in Madison will be a fascinating clash between two programs in vastly different places.

Wisconsin entered the season with the general understanding that this is a do-or-die year for head coach Luke Fickell. After the skipper oversaw three straight seasons of decline in Madison, 2026 was — and still is — his last chance to prove that he's turned this program around. Six games into the year, the jury is still out.

USC, meanwhile, also entered the 2026 campaign with the understanding that this is a do-or-die year for head coach Lincoln Riley. After the Trojans' win total dropped in each of the years in which he's been at the helm, a 9-4 record last season (including an important 7-2 mark in conference play) helped extend his leash. But make no mistake; it's playoffs or bust for Riley and company this fall.

Both coaches have faltered early in the year but still have everything in front of them. Wisconsin is 4-2 and has yet to beat a good team, but it could change that with tilts against USC and Iowa on tap. The Trojans, meanwhile, lost to Oregon but still have the leeway to drop one more game and secure a College Football Playoff bid.

Saturday is a massive game for both coaches. Here's why:

Luke Fickell

A loss to USC wouldn't spell immediate doom for Fickell; it won't be the straw the breaks the camel's back. It would, however, push him dangerously closer to the point of no return.

If Wisconsin can't upset the Trojans, they'd fall to 4-3 (2-2 in the Big Ten) with a road trip to No. 15 Iowa up next. That would turn that Iowa game into a must-win for Fickell and this staff to avoid a three-game losing streak and yet another loss to the Hawkeyes. It would also be his last chance to beat a nationally respected opponent.

Iowa, as per usual, is an extremely tough out and if the Badgers can't figure it out in the offensive trenches ahead of that game, they won't have much of a shot. Thus, a loss to USC means Wisconsin is realistically staring down the barrel of 4-4 (2-3), another loss to Iowa and fresh out of chances at a big win.

In that case, it may take the Badgers running the table and finishing 8-4 in order to save Fickell's job. It's safe to say the stakes are pretty high, and the loss to UCLA has only magnified them for Fickell.

Lincoln Riley

USC is obviously in a much better spot than the Badgers. Perched at No. 16 in the country with a 6-1 record, the Trojans are right in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation, which was the expectation ahead of the season.

However, USC is nearly out of wiggle room because of their loss to Oregon. Again, a two-loss Trojans team would almost certainly make the playoffs. But USC has a brutal back half of the schedule, with three teams currently ranked in the Top 10 (Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA) still lurking. USC has been good but far from dominant this season; it's safe to assume it'll drop at least one of those games. Therefore, the Trojans simply can't afford a loss to Wisconsin.

If USC loses to the Badgers, it'll need to run the table to make the big dance, which appears extremely unlikely with that schedule. In that case, what's next for Riley? As mentioned, this season was widely considered to be playoffs or bust in Los Angeles. Another year on the outside looking in could cost him his job.

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