Spread & Over/Under Predictions for Wisconsin vs. Western Illinois

After opening their season against an exceedingly difficult opponent in No. 4 Notre Dame, the Badgers now get something of a breather in the form of the FCS Western Illinois Leathernecks.

Wisconsin won't just be able to sleepwalk through the game, of course, but after seeing what they had against a true national title contender, the Badgers should have much more breathing room in Week 2.

As Wisconsin looks for a bounce-back win in a get-right game, here are my picks for Week 2 with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread: Wisconsin -38.5

University of Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Obviously, this is a massive spread; Wisconsin is favored by almost five touchdowns. While I do believe the talent disparity between these two teams warrants a spread this large, whether or not the Badgers cover could simply come down to how the game unfolds.

If Wisconsin is content to unleash its running game with long, clock-eating drives that result in pure physical domination of the Leathernecks if not complete numerical domination on the scoreboard, it'll have a hard time covering. The Badgers are simply going to need a decent amount of possessions to put that kind of distance between the two teams on the scoreboard.

Still, I anticipate Wisconsin having little trouble containing Western Illinois in every facet. This isn't a particularly good FCS team, like South Dakota was in 2024 when Wisconsin only beat the Coyotes 27-13. That team went 11-3 and made a run to the FCS Playoff Semifinals. The Leathernecks, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back 4-8 seasons, and they just lost to Illinois State (another FCS program) 41-10.

If the Badgers keep Western Illinois out of the end zone, which at this point I believe they will, Wisconsin can certainly score enough to cover the spread. I have the Badgers narrowly covering Saturday night in Madison.

Prediction: Wisconsin covers.

Total: 49.5

Wisconsin Badgers defensive line Dillan Johnson. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Again, the over/under here largely depends on what kind of game unfolds at Camp Randall Stadium. I could very feasibly see Wisconsin playing for possession, not worrying much about running up the score so long as it's dominating the line of scrimmage. However, I also see the Badgers taking out some frustration from the Notre Dame game on what should be a hapless Leathernecks squad.

If Wisconsin wants turn around and hand the ball off every play, I don't see Western Illinois' defensive front — which features all of two players who crack the 300-pound threshold — managing to stop that from happening. If the Badgers want to get Colton Joseph and these receivers clicking, the Leathernecks' secondary looks susceptible to that as well.

So while it wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin didn't open up its offense all that much, I still expect the Badgers to be able to score quickly and easily Saturday night.

Prediction: Over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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