March Madness: Five Bold Predictions for Women’s NCAA Tournament Round of 64

The NCAA women’s tournament first round has, in the past, rarely been the realm of surprise. Famously, only one team seeded No. 14 or lower—No. 16 Harvard in 1998—has ever won a first-round game.

However, that doesn’t mean upsets never happen. Last year, for instance, No. 10 South Dakota State beat No. 7 Oklahoma State and No. 10 Oregon topped No. 7 Vanderbilt in overtime.

With that in mind, here are five bold predictions for the first round of the NCAA women’s tournament. Even though UConn and UCLA are probably safe, there is plenty of fun to be found in the bowels of the 68-team field.

1. South Dakota State will strike again.

Coach Aaron Johnston’s Jackrabbits have long been one of the most feared mid-majors in the women’s game. In 2023, they knocked off USC as a No. 9 seed, and in ’25 they got the better of the Cowgirls. This year, No. 6 Washington looms in Fort Worth. South Dakota State is not quite as good as it was last season, when it went 30–4 against a more difficult schedule, but forward Brooklyn Meyer and the Jackrabbits have the firepower to advance. Throw in that the Huskies are backing in a bit—they lost six of their last 10 games in the Big Ten gauntlet—and the climate is ripe for a shocker.

2. Georgia will slip up against a First Four team.

Like Washington, the Bulldogs skidded down the stretch against a string of conference rivals, losing—you guessed it—six of their final 10 games. Georgia also played, per College Basketball Reference, the lightest schedule in the SEC. There’s no question the Bulldogs can win these types of games—they beat Vanderbilt, a No. 2 seed, on Feb. 15. However, the line between Georgia and either Arizona State (a better defensive team) or Virginia (a better offensive team) seems thinner than it’s being given credit for.

3. A peeved Vanderbilt team will cover a sky-high point spread.

When we last spotted coach Shea Ralph’s squad, it was being drummed out of the SEC tournament 89–78 in a bad-vibes-all-around loss to Ole Miss that ended with Ralph’s ejection. Superstar Commodores guard Mikayla Blakes endured her worst shooting day of the season against the Rebels, making eight of her 27 field goal attempts for a hard-earned 24 points. The upshot: Do not expect Ralph and Blakes to go easy on High Point on Saturday. The largest margin of victory by Vanderbilt in the NCAA women’s tournament: 36 over Northern Illinois in 1995 as a No. 1 seed. That record will be in serious danger.

4. James Madison will throw a serious scare into Kentucky.

The No. 12 Dukes enter NCAA tournament play on a tear, having taken their last loss on Jan. 25 at Arkansas State. Kentucky, on the other hand, has lost three of its last six—but the three are to South Carolina twice and Vanderbilt. Something has to give in this matchup between Wildcats coach Kenny Brooks and his alma mater. To pull an upset, James Madison has to neutralize Kentucky center Clara Strack at the top of her game—that task may fall to Sun Belt All-Defensive forward Ashanti Barnes, as the Dukes have no true center. “There’s more similarities than differences,” Dukes coach and ex-Brooks assistant Sean O’Regan said Wednesday via Shane Mettlen of the Northern Virginia Daily referencing the teams’ play styles, and that could encourage a tight contest.

5. Either Iowa State center Audi Crooks or Notre Dame guard Hannah Hidalgo will head home early.

Crooks and Hidalgo are two of the biggest names in women’s college basketball—and the nation’s second- and third-leading scorers, behind Blakes. Yet their teams enter March undeniably vulnerable: The No. 8 Cyclones dropped out of the AP poll in January and haven’t returned, while the No. 6 Fighting Irish have lost an uncharacteristic 10 games. Each team’s opponent has something to prove. No. 9 Syracuse is back in the tournament for the first time in two years, while No. 11 Fairfield has secured its highest seed since 1988. (The Orange have the additional advantage of playing just a four-hour drive away in Connecticut.) A big name seems likely to see their season end before dinnertime Saturday.

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