Staff Predictions: Can Wisconsin Open Big Ten Play With an Upset Over No. 13 Penn State?

After two straight games against heavily overmatched opponents, Wisconsin football must once again take on a top-ranked team away from Madison.

The Badgers open Big Ten play in daunting fashion, on the road against No. 13 Penn State.

Still, after finally blowing out an inferior opponent, Wisconsin is only a 9.5-point underdog on FanDuel against the Nittany Lions; the Badgers are expected to compete in Happy Valley.

Below, the Badgers On SI staff offers roundtable predictions for the massive conference opener:

Seamus Rohrer, Editor

The Badgers have put some good things on tape through three weeks, and there's definite signs that this team both is significantly improved from last fall and trending in the right direction as a program overall.

Still, this is going to be an extremely tough game for Wisconsin to win. It's going to need to force Nittany Lions' grizzled veteran quarterback Rocco Becht into mistakes, something he's hardly done this season. It's going to need to establish the run, and Wisconsin currently ranks No. 117 in rushing offense at 92.0 yards per game.

This would be the biggest win in Fickell's tenure in Madison, but I'm just not there yet with this team. Penn State looks good through three weeks, truthfully better than I thought they'd look this early in the Matt Campbell era. I think the Badgers can give them some trouble, but this team is going to have to grow up before our very eyes if they want to pull off this upset.

Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 17

Drew Gentile, Staff Writer

There's a reason Penn State is ranked in the top-15 entering Saturday's, but this isn't nearly as daunting of a task as trying to upset Notre Dame, despite Beaver Stadium being arguably the nation's toughest venue. What I will say is that the Nittany Lions are vulnerable. Koby Howard's absence is a huge deal, Temple proved running the ball against this defense is doable and if not for a 61-yard carry from Quinton Martin Jr., Penn State would be entering the game without a 100-yard rusher in any game.

All that being said, I'm not going to boldly predict a victory until Luke Fickell and his staff prove they can win a game of this magnitude, but all things considered, the Badgers can't play to merely be in the game on Saturday night. The talent deficit exists but this isn't a Penn State team that's going to be one of the last four teams playing this season, so being competitive is the bare minimum, and winning outright shouldn't be out of the question. I'm hoping this can be a game where the offense proves itself viable against an elite defense, but until I see it, I can't predict it.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Wisconsin 14

Jeremy Schneider, Staff Writer

Through three games, it’s hard to know who the 2026 Badgers are. They were crushed by national title-contending Notre Dame, as expected, and handled business against lesser opponents in Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan. While Wisconsin still has plenty of questions to answer, a similar sentiment applies to Penn State, as the Nittany Lions have played three Group of Six opponents.

Earned or not, I believe Wisconsin can compete at Beaver Stadium, particularly in the first half. My concern, however, is the Badgers wearing down as the game goes on, as we saw at Lambeau Field in Week 1, particularly in the trenches. I think Luke Fickell’s squad can make this a four-quarter affair, but Penn State is the superior team with a much more seasoned quarterback. Even without top wide receiver Koby Howard, I think the Nittany Lions will ultimately prevail to open Big Ten play.

Prediction: Penn State 27, Wisconsin 17

Christian Borman, Staff Writer

After the Badgers' dominant win over Easter Michigan last week, I'd like to think this team is figuring some things out on both sides of the ball.

Colton Joseph finally played like the player we all hoped he'd be when they got him from the transfer portal. But can he do it on the road against a team like Penn State? He'll get some weapons back in Abu Sama and potentially Malachi Coleman, who were both probable on the injury report. But even with the reinforcements, the offensive line worries me a bit yet. I'm skeptical about the offense this week.

Defensively, not having to worry about Koby Howard is a huge plus for the Wisconsin secondary that got gashed through the air by the only Power 4 team they played. Granted, CJ Carr is a Heisman candidate, but Rocco Becht is no slouch. The secondary will have to play the best game of their season if the Badgers are going to win.

I've been fooled by the Luke Fickell teams in the past. Now, I'm in 'I need to see it to believe it' mode with this team. If this game were at home, I might feel differently, but as of right now, I'm just not there yet.

Prediction: Penn State 28, Wisconsin 17

Benjamin Worgull, Staff Writer

It was refreshing to see Wisconsin dominate in all three phases after a sluggish start last weekend, but carrying forward that momentum won't be easy. Penn State has outscored its three nonconfernce opponents by a combined score of 127-22. In his first season in State College, Matt Campbell has Penn State's offense, defense, and special teams ranked in the top 15 of statistical efficiency metrics, one of only two teams in the country who can boast that.

The other is Notre Dame, which overwhelmed the Badgers in the second half earlier this month.

With Penn State ranked 13th in the AP poll, this will be the Badgers ninth ranked opponent in the last 16 games, the most of any team in the nation. UW is looking to end two dubious streaks on Saturday, beating a top 15 opponent on the road for the first time since November 2019 and winning at Penn State for the first time since September 2001.

At this point in the Fickell era, it's hard to pick an underdog Badgers team to a win until they can prove they can compete. After what I saw at Lambeau, the talent gap still appears to wide.

Prediction: Penn State: 38, Wisconsin 10

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