Staff Predictions: Can Wisconsin Take Back the Heartland Trophy?

Iowa Week is finally upon us.

Wisconsin's annual clash with the Hawkeyes hasn't gone great for the Badgers recently. But freshly ranked No. 25, coming off a win over then-No. 16 USC, head coach Luke Fickell's squad should roll into Iowa City riding high and with the most confidence it's had all year.

A win over Iowa would give the Badgers a chance to make the kind of noise no one thought possible this season. A loss would be Fickell's fourth in four tries, and would open up a whole new can of worms about where this program is from an identity standpoint.

Below, the Badgers On SI crew gives their picks for the enormous Big Noon Kickoff showdown on Halloween:

Seamus Rohrer, Editor

This might be the hardest Badgers game I've had to pick all season. These teams are so similar, and they both do the same exact things well: play lockdown defense, suffocating opposing running games while (at least attempting to) impose their will on the ground offensively.

They also do the same things poorly, namely throwing the football. Both teams have a distinct lack of explosive playmakers, and that's especially true for Iowa now that it's lost star tailback Kamari Moulton for the season.

Iowa's quarterback carousel is still spinning, although the Hawkeyes have seemingly settled on Hank Brown at gunslinger for Saturday. I'm not convinced either team is going to be able to move the ball. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw anywhere from 17-20 total punts come Saturday.

What pushes me ever so slightly towards the Badgers here is I think Wisconsin knows who it is a little more on offense; the Badgers have at the very least settled on a quarterback. And while Iowa's defense is elite, Wisconsin's has been even better, particularly against the pass. And finally, Moulton's injury shouldn't be understated — he was Iowa's best playmaker on offense.

Prediction: Wisconsin 13, Iowa 10

Drew Gentile, Staff Writer

It feels like we're calling too many games the biggest of Luke Fickell's tenure, but that's what happens when the pressure is high. This matchup in Iowa City, however, is the game I've had scheduled as the measuring stick for the season since the schedule's release.

In my 21 years, I've always viewed this rivalry as a true determinant of a season and the program's direction. Iowa is a program I have tons of respect for, and I've grown to expect Wisconsin to succeed at a similar level. That has been far from the case recently.

I will say, this is as confident as I've been in the Badgers against he Hawkeyes since Fickell has been here. Especially with Moulton missing and Iowa's question mark at quarterback. I leaned pessimistic with my pick last weekend and was proven wrong. As tempted as I am to pick Wisconsin here, I need to see it to believe it in this rivalry game.

This will be a beautiful ugly game for fans of old-school Big Ten football, and I think it comes down to which team makes the big mistake, whether it be a turnover or special teams mishap. I won't be surprised if Wisconsin leaves victorious, but I'm not there with my pick yet.

Prediction: Iowa 16, Wisconsin 13

Jeremy Schneider, Staff Writer

There’s plenty of football left to be played, and Wisconsin has already put together an encouraging campaign, but Saturday feels like a season-defining game. At the risk of sounding hyperbolic, it might even be a program-defining one. What’s not hyperbolic is Iowa’s recent dominance in this rivalry. The Hawkeyes have outscored the Badgers 79-10 over the past two contests, and Luke Fickell has yet to claim the Heartland Trophy in three tries.

The players may change, but Iowa’s DNA remains the same: physicality, discipline and a commitment to winning in the trenches. The quarterback uncertainty is a legitimate concern, and losing star running back Kamari Moulton for the season is a significant blow. The Hawkeyes aren’t built to overwhelm opponents offensively, but their defense rarely makes life easy. Wisconsin did enough to get the job done against USC, but Iowa presents a more physical challenge, particularly with the game taking place at Kinnick Stadium.

Make no mistake, this is a winnable game for Wisconsin. The Badgers have shown meaningful progress this season, and going into Iowa City and avoiding a letdown after last week’s statement win would be another major step forward for the program. The Badgers have earned the right to believe they should win this game, but I’m not quite ready to pick them to do it. For now, I’m sticking with a “see it to believe it” approach.

Of course, I’ve gotten my last two predictions wrong, so take that for what it’s worth.

Prediction: Iowa 13, Wisconsin 10

Christian Borman, Staff Writer

I think this will be a game between two very similar teams. Both have strong defenses, but their offenses struggle at times.

Wisconsin has struggled to get the running game going lately. The Hawkeyes, who give up just 83 yards on the ground per game, are probably the last opponent they want to face. Iowa's stout defense also limits opponents to just 198 yards per game through the air.

Without their leading rusher, the Hawkeyes' running attack takes a hit, which they can ill afford with the Badgers lining up on the other side of the ball. Wisconsin allows just 96 yards per game on the ground and is coming off back-to-back games where they shut down the opposing running attack. They held UCLA running back Wayne Knight to just 23 yards on 13 carries and put the USC rushing offense in the negative last weekend.

I think this is going to be a low scoring, slug-it-out kind of game; one reminiscent of the way these games used to be. And I am all for it.

I think I trust Wisconsin's offense to do a little more than Iowa's, but they need to avoid the costly, backbreaking turnover. I saw enough against USC to give me some confidence in this matchup for Wisconsin.

Prediction: Wisconsin 17, Iowa 13

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