Where the Badgers Stand in Post-Spring Bowl Game Projections

Checking in on some early bowl game projections — and what they mean — for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen. | Alex Gould/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Will the Badgers shed the albatross around their neck and get back to the postseason in 2026? Multiple national outlets see that happening.

Wisconsin football is coming off its first consecutive seasons in which it failed to qualify for a bowl game since 1991-1992. But a revamped roster with over 30 transfer portal additions, a couple of hand-picked elite position coach hires and a significantly more manageable schedule have the Badgers poised to bounce back, according to post-spring bowl game projections from On3 and CBS Sports.

Both national outlets recently released post-spring bowl game picks, and both publications have the Badgers heading out West to Phoenix for the Rate Bowl to play Kansas State.

What it means

Generally considered a mid-tier bowl, the Rate Bowl would likely be the result of a mediocre season in Madison. The last two teams to represent the Big Ten in the Rate Bowl — Minnesota and Rutgers — won seven and six regular season games that season, respectively.

That gives us a pretty good idea of how both outlets think the Badgers are going to fare in 2026. If we assume Wisconsin emerges from the out-of-conference slate with a 2-1 record (losing to a likely top-five Notre Dame team but besting Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan), that means the Badgers are expected to then go 4-5 or 5-4 in the Big Ten.

Looking at the Big Ten slate, Wisconsin's toughest tests look to be at Penn State, at Iowa and versus USC. The Badgers could drop all three of those games and still be on track for the four or five conference wins needed to hit this projection, and many of the rest of the games (including Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State) are very manageable.

Wisconsin Badgers running back Braelon Allen (0) runs the ball toward the end zone against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. | Alex Gould/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Badgers played in the Rate Bowl recently, back when it was still the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. In what was technically Luke Fickell's Wisconsin coaching debut (although it was still entirely Paul Chryst/Jim Leonhard's roster/staff), the Badgers topped Oklahoma State 24-17 on Dec. 27, 2022.

At the time, only earning a Rate Bowl bid was seen as a big disappointment in Madison. After all, Wisconsin was just two years removed from a Rose Bowl appearance and the team won nine games the year prior.

Thus, there would be no shortage of irony in Fickell getting the Badgers back to the Rate Bowl in 2026. A bowl game that, in his first game coaching Wisconsin, was seen as beneath them, would be a huge step four years into his tenure. That of course is not a ringing endorsement of how things have gone for Fickell.