The path to a Kirk Cousins-less future for the Vikings

What would need to happen for Minnesota to move on from Cousins after this season?

Since Kirk Cousins arrived in Minnesota, his position on the Vikings’ roster has never been more tenuous than it is entering this season.

Despite a newly-signed contract in hand, Cousins’ deal only keeps him in Minnesota for two more seasons and effectively ensures the quarterback drama that surrounded the Vikings this offseason will be present again next season. The same trade rumors and draft speculation that ran rampant over the first weeks of this offseason will only grow louder in 2023 as he will again be entering the final year of another deal with the new regime deciding whether they want the Cousins era to be a footnote or a defining piece of their history for better or for worse.

How 2022 influences the decision

Clearly, the upcoming season has massive ramifications on the rest of Cousins’ career. He has said he wants to retire as a Minnesota Viking, but that decision isn’t up to him. What he can control is how hard of a decision he makes it for Kwesi-Adofo Mensah and Kevin O’Connell.

Both ends of the extremes are pretty inarguable. If the Vikings have a disastrous season that Cousins starts most of, it becomes clear their “competitive rebuild” didn’t work and that change is imperative. And while Cousins would undoubtedly get another starting gig, likely with a high price tag attached, a disappointing season would mean another acrimonious departure from a middling team. It happened once with Washington and it could happen again in Minnesota.

But if Cousins goes on a tear and leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl appearance it assures he’ll be around for a long time.

Yet everything from Cousins’ career tells us it won’t be that black and white. Since he became a full-time NFL starter in 2015, he’s won between 7 and 10 games every season. He’s made it to the playoffs three times and into the second round just once. He’s never been bad enough to get rid of or good enough to receive star treatment.

So what will be the determining factor in the Vikings’ decision? Well, looking historically, playoff teams don’t often part from the quarterbacks that got them there. Going back 10 years, here’s the list (not factoring in preseason injuries that forced a different quarterback to start, i.e. the Teddy Bridgewater/Sam Bradford in 2016).

• 2021 - San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo (likely) replaced by Trey Lance in his second year
• 2021 - Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger, retirement
• 2020 - Indianapolis Colts, Phil Rivers, retirement
• 2020 - New Orleans Saints, Drew Brees, retirement
• 2020 - Washington Commanders, Alex Smith, retirement
• 2020 - Chicago Bears, Mitch Trubisky replaced by rookie Justin Fields
• 2019 - New England Patriots, Tom Brady leaves in free agency
• 2018 - Indianapolis Colts, Andrew Luck, retirement
• 2017 - Minnesota Vikings, Case Keenum replaced by Kirk Cousins in free agency
• 2017 - Kansas City Chiefs, Alex Smith replaced by Patrick Mahomes in his second year
• 2017 - Buffalo Bills, Tyrod Taylor replaced by rookie Josh Allen
• 2016 - Houston Texans, Brock Osweiler replaced by rookie DeShaun Watson
• 2015 - Denver Broncos, Peyton Manning, retirement
• 2015 - Houston Texans, Brian Hoyer replaced by Brock Osweiler in free agency
• 2014 - none
• 2013 - none
• 2012 - none

In the last 10 years, it’s happened 14 times. Six of those came because the quarterback retired. Three (including Cousins’ arrival in Minnesota) were outside free agent signings. Three were rookie first-round quarterbacks and two were second-year quarterbacks.

At first glance, Cousins would seem to be in a very similar situation as Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason and Alex Smith after the 2017 season. However, both of those quarterbacks were replaced by second-year quarterbacks, not rookies. That gives us a peek into those teams’ psyches. Solid starting quarterbacks, both organizations only felt comfortable moving on after getting a rookie in the building for a year. It’s a lot easier to discard the Osweilers, Hoyers, and Taylors of the world with an unproven rookie. It’s less so for proven starters who have a history of success. For those teams, it took a year of seeing the rookie in their system before they were comfortable ditching a proven commodity. That’s the boat Cousins falls in. Would the Vikings be willing to move away from him for a rookie despite making the playoffs in 2022? Maybe. But the Vikings' regime is brand new. And moving on from a quarterback after an improved season to likely taking a step back could be a very difficult pill to swallow.

If Cousins is no longer donning purple and gold in 2023, it would have to be on the heels of a third missed postseason in five years. Especially for a new regime. Without a successful first season, would a new regime tie 50 percent of their reported four-year contracts to Cousins? They have not yet staked their reputation on Cousins the way Spielman and Zimmer did. A two-year deal is more of a test drive than a ringing endorsement.

But what else would a disappointing season tell us? For one, it would show us that Kevin O’Connell is no better than his counterparts, which isn’t an insult. Being in the same breath as Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak isn’t a bad thing. But O’Connell was brought here in part to wield the skeleton key that unlocks the Cousins puzzle. As mentioned, it would expose the Vikings’ competitive rebuild plan. And it would likely spell the beginning of real change. The noise to move on from Cousins was quite loud this offseason. Another below-average season that wastes a cheap Justin Jefferson year and fails to take advantage of the last remaining value of veterans like Harrison Smith and Adam Thielen would require serious self reflection from coaching to the front office to ownership.

So for the first time in Cousins’ career, the situation may be black and white. Make the playoffs and he’s in line for another extension. Miss the postseason and it’s time to find another team to convince they are a Kirk Cousins away from contention.

The options

Draft Cousins’ replacement

In keeping with the origins of SKOL Searching, it’s only fair to do a brief 2023 QB draft preview.

Here are PFF’s top-ranked QBs for 2023:

1. Bryce Young, Alabama
2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
3. Tanner McKee, Stanford
4. Will Levis, Kentucky
5. Anthony Richardson, Florida

And here’s The Athletic’s Dane Brugler:

1. Stroud
2. Young
3. Levis
4. Tyler Van Dyke, Miami
5. McKee

Already this quarterback class is much more well thought of than the 2022 group. And while it’s a dangerous game to play a year out, some of the underlying statistics support the narrative.

In the lead-up to the 2022 NFL Draft, PFF’s Tej Seth conducted an analysis of completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which evaluates how likely a pass is to be completed based on the pass depth, how open the receiver is, the pass width and whether or not the quarterback was pressured in addition to game situation variables such as down, distance, yard line, time remaining, etc. If a quarterback has a positive CPOE, they are more often than not completing the passes they are supposed to and some that are very unlikely, while someone with a negative CPOE is struggling to complete passes they are supposed to.

And while the statistic has its flaws (it doesn’t take into account plays that don’t end up with a throw like scramble runs or sacks), it has been a good predictor of NFL talent. Take a look at this chart.

PFF

What we see is that most of the quarterbacks who had an above-average CPOE often did so in the NFL.

Now applying that to the 2022 NFL Draft, only Kenny Pickett had a notably above average CPOE. And he turned out to be the only first-round pick of the bunch.

Now let’s look at the 2023 class.

PFF

All but two quarterbacks had a higher CPOE last year than Malik Willis and a majority of them also had a better EPA/Pass as well. While there will inevitably be prospects that rise and fall over the next 10 months, the upcoming draft sets up to be a better one for a quarterback-needy team.

That bodes well for the Vikings if they decide to move on from Cousins. As previously stated, Cousins is likely not going to lead a team to a horrendous record. It’s never happened in his career. So the probability of Minnesota landing in the top five is relatively small. For that reason, they’ll likely miss out on the first few quarterbacks – which are predicted to be led by Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. But there appears to be a much more viable second-tier of quarterbacks that will be available in the teens, from Spencer Rattler to Devin Leary to Will Levis and Tyler Van Dyke. That’s likely where Minnesota would fall.

This is the Vikings’ most likely path. It’s hard to envision finding a better week one starter than Kirk Cousins through free agency or a trade. So the prospect of adding a young, cheap quarterback is the most appealing option.

But would this option compel the Vikings to move on from Cousins immediately? Or keep him as a stop-gap quarterback like Garappalo and Smith?

Get creative through a trade or free agency

This route is more difficult to comprehend. The Vikings have tried once to pay up for a quarterback to put them over the edge and that did not produce the Super Bowl results that they wanted. So to chase a marquee name by trade or free agency would be a lateral move.

But in eight months, there may be a quarterback on the block that we don’t expect. Baker Mayfield was on track to get a massive second contract for the Browns this time last year. Nobody suspected Kyler Murray had any issues in Arizona. The landscape could look much different than it does today, but it’s hard to identify who those quarterbacks will be. Ryan Tannehill makes sense as an option as the Titans could look to the future with Malik Willis after this season. Maybe Josh McDaniels wants to upgrade over Derek Carr? Or could Tua flame out in Miami and be on the block? None of those are clear upgrades over Cousins.

So the only route that makes much sense is signing a bridge quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones are a few options that could be mutually beneficial as each looks to rehabilitate themselves and could be on a prove-it deal. But all of that only makes sense if the Vikings take a quarterback in the draft. There are no clear upgrades outside of drafting unless Minnesota believes Kyler Murray can be the answer or that they can lure Tom Brady away from the Bucs. So yeah, better start looking at draft boards.

Related: On the Vikings' schedule, how often is Kirk Cousins the better QB?

Related: 50 bold Minnesota Vikings and NFL predictions for 2022