Eight college football teams on upset alert in Week 10

Joe Cox | Oct 31, 2025

Carson Beck and Miami could be on upset alert in Week 10 at SMU. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

As the calendar shifts to November, college football upsets may head into overdrive. With conference battles heading to their final run, here's one last shot at playing spoiler. To review the ground rules, we're not listing games with a line smaller than +5. So this isn't the place for, say, Vandy vs. Texas picks-- the line is too close to allow for a genuine upset. But here are eight Week 10 teams that could be subject to genuine upsets.

Miami (-10.5 at SMU)

Much of Miami's early success is looking increasingly like fool's gold. Beat Florida? Who didn't. Squeaked past Florida State? OK. Lost to Louisville? Yep. Meanwhile, with Kevin Jennings at QB, SMU will have something to prove after an ugly loss a week ago. The Mustangs are hard to beat at home, and seem likely to at least hang with Miami, if not outright steal this one.

North Texas (-6.5 vs. Navy)

This game is a wild contrast of styles. That's the No. 6 passing team in the nation against No. 124. But Navy does have the nation's top ground attack with 318 yards per game rushing. North Texas is No. 119 in rush defense. Navy's style of play can hamper even a great team. They're good for an upset in Week 10.

Georgia (-7.5 vs. Florida)

This is a risky pick, no way around it. Georgia has largely been steady and under control this season. But they're not blowing people away (three one-score games in the last five played) and Florida could have some actual pride on the line here. Rivalry games are infamous for unpredictability, so give Florida a chance at sticking around with UGA and it could come to pass.

Texas Tech (-7.5 vs. Kansas State)

Kansas State has been disappointing, but they have scored 34 or more points in each of their last four games. Texas Tech has done the same thing in four of its last five, so this feels like a shootout. An underachieveing home team could be good to beat the spread or even pull the overall upset.

Virginia (-6.5 at California)

To say that UVA has been living dangerously is an understatement. The Cavaliers needed a stopped two-point conversion in overtime to outlast North Carolina, beat Washington State by two, and then won in overtime against both Louisville and Florida State. But a tide of close games will come up short sooner or later, and the cross-country road trip makes Cal a dangerous foe.

Florida State (-10.5 vs. Wake Forest)

FSU is reeling and has been for a four-game losing streak. Wake had a hard-fought overtime loss to Georgia Tech and then bounced back with three straight wins. The team that's playing for bowl eligibility certainly has more mojo than the team that is probably trying to save its coach's job. That's a big spread that Wake can cover.

Utah (-10.5 vs. Cincinnati)

The Utes have been strong at home, but Cincinnati is strong everywhere. The Bearcats have scored 37 or more in four of their last five games and Brendan Sorsby is playing like a Heisman candidate with 20 touchdowns to one interception. That absence of mistakes will be key and help Cincinnati hang around on the road.

Auburn (-10.5 vs. Kentucky)

This isn't a pick based on confidence in Kentucky. The Wildcat offense has been miserable... but so has Auburn's. Yes, Tennessee scored all over Kentucky, but Texas had massive problems the week before. This just feels like a 14-13 or 17-14 or maybe 21-17 kind of game. Kentucky to win isn't very interesting. But to hang around and beat that spread? Sure.

Jackson Arnold and Auburn figure to have a low-scoring grinder against Kentucky in Week 10. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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