Florida vs. Miami prediction: Where experts see an edge

Oddsmakers reveal their expert prediction for Florida vs. Miami in this Week 4 game.

Florida Gators vs. Miami Hurricanes prediction, odds 2025 | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Oddsmakers reveal their expert prediction for Florida vs. Miami in this Week 4 college football game on Saturday.

Florida tumbled to a 1-2 mark after consecutive losses against USF and then LSU, in the latter case as quarterback DJ Lagway throwing 5 interceptions, and the Gators’ offense has scored a combined 26 points in that time.

Their defense? That’s allowed just 38 total points in that span and ranks 26th in FBS by allowing a shade under 13 points per game on average.

Miami is off to a fast 3-0 start with Carson Beck at the helm in an offense that ranks 12th in the country averaging just over 50 points per game and nets under 307 yards passing each time out on average.

Two of those three wins have come against ranked opponents, first taking out Notre Dame in the opener by a field goal, and then smashing USF by a 49-12 count.

Where is the money going in this matchup between the Gators and the Hurricanes?

Here is the latest prediction for Miami vs. Florida in this Week 4 college football game, according to the oddsmakers.

Miami vs. Florida picks, odds

As expected, the home team is the favorite in this one against the struggling Gators.

Miami is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida this weekend, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -265 and for Florida at +215 to win outright.

Miami: -7.5 (-104)
Florida: +7.5 (-118)

Over 51.5 points: -110
Under 51.5 points: -110

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Miami vs. Florida trends

Florida 10-3 against the spread in its last 13 games...

The total went over in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games...

Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against SEC opponents...

Miami is 2-4 against the spread in its last 6 games on a Saturday...

Florida is 0-5 against the spread in its last 5 games against Miami...

Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games as the favorite...

Florida is 5-2 against the spread in its last 7 games on the road...

Miami is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 home games...

Florida won 2 of its last 8 games against Miami straight-up...

The total went over in 11 of Miami’s last 14 home games...

Florida is 4-17 straight-up in its last 21 road games...

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Where the money is going

A strong majority of bettors are siding with the Hurricanes to take care of business against the Gators and stay undefeated, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Miami is getting 71 percent of bets to win the game by at least 8 points and cover the point spread against Florida.

The other 29 percent of wagers project the Gators will either upset the Hurricanes outright or keep the game within a touchdown in a loss on the road.

The game’s implied score suggests a narrow victory for the Hurricanes over Florida.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Miami will defeat Florida by a projected score of 30 to 22.

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College Football HQ prediction

Florida’s offense isn’t there right now, and it will find some difficulty navigating around the Hurricanes’ front line tacklers, and Carson Beck’s command of the Miami offense looks to be in midseason form already.

Prediction: Miami -7.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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