Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins, and why?

Texas A&M was in line to play for the SEC championship, but instead lost its undefeated season in a loss to rival Texas in the finale, instead booking a date in the first round of the College Football Playoff against Miami.

Miami opened the 2025 campaign on a five-game win streak, but its fortunes took a negative turn after a 1-2 midseason stretch that included losses to Louisville and SMU by a combined 9 points.

But the Hurricanes won their final four games, scoring almost 38 points on average in that stretch, and ultimately jumped Notre Dame in the final rankings to earn a place in the playoff picture.

Miami vs. Texas A&M: What to watch for

Miami Hurricanes vs. Texas A&M Aggies football game prediction — Jeff Romance-Imagn Images

1. Miami protection and passing rhythm

Miami’s offense leans on excellent pass protection and a confident veteran quarterback to stay efficient rather than wildly explosive, and advanced metrics reveal that Miami allows pressure at one of the lowest rates in the country.

If that continues, the Hurricanes can keep the passing game on schedule, feed emerging freshman receiver Malachi Toney, who has surged with several late-season touchdown grabs, and avoid the negative plays that fuel Kyle Field’s noise.

2. Aggies’ front, run game, and Kyle Field

Texas A&M brings an 11–1 team with a strong defensive front, a balanced offense, and a perfect home record this season, and the environment at Kyle Field is consistently described as one of the loudest and most chaotic in college football.

For the Aggies, establishing their run game and creating some pressure on Miami’s quarterback are essential, because forcing longer-yardage third downs is how they can actually leverage that crowd, tilt field position, and avoid putting everything on Marcel Reed’s arm in a tight playoff game.

3. Situational football and pace

Miami’s defensive line and A&M’s physicality point toward a game where red-zone execution and a handful of key possessions matter more than raw yardage.

In that type of script, Miami’s recent late-season surge and A&M’s stumble against Texas are being weighed against the Aggies’ home-field advantage.

Whichever team wins third down, avoids the back-breaking turnover, and finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals at a methodical pace is widely viewed as the one most likely to advance.

Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins?

Line: Texas A&M -3.5, 48.5

Carson Beck has the experience and the skill threats to put the Hurricanes in position, not to mention a strong defensive front rotation that will challenge Reed and his ability to build momentum.

But the Aggies have an overall defensive advantage and more of an explosive element to their own offense combined with one of the most vocal home-field advantages in the country.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas A&M wins 30-24
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Miami vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert model

How to watch Miami vs. Texas A&M

When: Sat., Dec. 20
Where: Texas A&M

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC/ESPN networks

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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