Predicting SEC Win Totals for 2026 College Football Season

Sixteen win total calls on the conference's board from BetMGM, providing over/under picks from the bottom feeders at 4.5 to the two favorites sitting at 9.5.

Breaking down predictions of the college football win totals of the 16 teams across the SEC. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The SEC enters its first nine-game conference schedule in 2026, and BetMGM's win totals reflect the squeeze. Georgia and Texas top the board at 9.5, the lowest ceiling of any power conference, while Arkansas, Mississippi State and Kentucky sit together at 4.5.

Five new head coaches and a wave of transfer quarterbacks add more uncertainty. We are going program by program with a firm call on each, starting at the bottom and climbing to the top.

You'll quickly notice a recurring theme in these predictions: Vegas seems to view an expanded conference schedule too unfavorably.

Arkansas over/under 4.5 wins

Under. Ryan Silverfield inherits a 2-10 team with a 10-game losing streak, 70+ newcomers and an unsettled quarterback battle between KJ Jackson and AJ Hill.

ESPN's FPI rates this the toughest schedule in the country, so even a better roster struggles to find five wins.

Mississippi State over/under 4.5 wins

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over. Jeff Lebby says this is his best roster in three years, and sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor takes over an offense built for his skill set.

The Bulldogs dropped three games on a single play last season, and a schedule that skips Arkansas and Kentucky still leaves enough winnable dates to reach five.

Kentucky over/under 4.5 wins

Over. Will Stein arrives from Oregon with Notre Dame transfer Kenny Minchey at quarterback and a roster upgraded across the board through the portal.

Youngstown State and South Alabama are near-locks, and a defense returning leading tackler Ty Bryant keeps enough games close to find three more wins.

Vanderbilt over/under 5.5 wins

Vanderbilt quarterback Jared Curtis (2) looks to pass during the Commodores' Black and Gold Spring Game. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Over. The Commodores lost Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia, but Clark Lea built a program that jumped from two wins to seven to ten.

Austin Peay, Delaware and NC State should deliver a 3-0 start, and five SEC opponents on the slate missed bowl eligibility last season, so six wins is there even with a step back on offense.

South Carolina over/under 6.5 wins

Over. LaNorris Sellers turned down the NFL to return, and new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles arrives to fix a unit that got its quarterback sacked 42 times.

A 4-8 team that led Texas A&M by 27 on the road was better than its record, and an upgraded line plus Briles' tempo makes seven wins the right side.

Auburn over/under 6.5 wins

Auburn Tigers quarterback Byrum Brown (17) throws the ball during the first day of football practice at the Woltosz Football Performance Center. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Over. New coach Alex Golesh brought quarterback Byrum Brown and ten other South Florida players with him, cutting the usual first-year installation pain. Brown was the only Division I player to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 last season, and last year's USF offense ranked third nationally in total yards.

That is a massive upgrade on an Auburn attack that finished 79th, and it ends the streak of five straight seven-loss seasons.

Missouri over/under 6.5 wins

Over. The Tigers have cleared this number three straight years, and only Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas and Alabama have more SEC wins over that span.

Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons takes over at quarterback behind a defense that ranked top-15 in SP+ two years running. The schedule got harder, but a program that wins 29 games in three years earns the benefit of the doubt at 6.5.

Florida over/under 7.5 wins

Florida head coach Jon Sumrall watches practice during Gators camp at Heavener Football Training Center in Gainesville, FL. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Under. Jon Sumrall inherited a 4-8 team and added 29 transfers, but the quarterback battle between Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones is unsettled. An October run of at Missouri, South Carolina, at Texas and Georgia in Atlanta buries marquee bowl game aspirations fast.

Seven wins would be a strong first year, but eight asks too much of a full rebuild in this conference.

Tennessee over/under 7.5 wins

Over. The Vols won 38 games over four years, more than every SEC program except Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Texas. A new quarterback will eventually emerge between George MacIntyre, five-star freshman Faizon Brandon and Ryan Staub, but DeSean Bishop returns as one of the SEC's top rushers behind a line with national top-10 potential.

Missing Georgia, Oklahoma, Missouri and Ole Miss softens the nine-game slate enough to reach eight wins.

Ole Miss over/under 7.5 wins

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) reacts with running back Kewan Lacy (5) after a touchdown run. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over. Pete Golding took a team Lane Kiffin abandoned before the playoffs and drove it to a CFP semifinal anyway. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy return after combining for 54 touchdowns, and the Rebels signed the nation's second-best transfer portal class.

This roster ranks fourth nationally in returning snaps, and 7.5 badly undersells a program with four 10-win seasons in five years.

Oklahoma over/under 7.5 wins

Over. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer from a 10-win playoff season, the first returning starter under Brent Venables since Dillon Gabriel in 2023. Last year's defense led the nation in sacks and tackles for loss, and most of that front is back.

The gauntlet of at Michigan, at Georgia and Texas in Dallas is brutal, but a midseason run of Kentucky, at Mississippi State, South Carolina and at Florida gives Oklahoma four wins over teams that missed bowls.

Texas A&M over/under 8.5 wins

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over. Marcel Reed returns after throwing for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns in an 11-1 regular season that ended in the program's first playoff trip. The Aggies bring back 65% of the roster plus receiver Mario Craver, and most projections land between 9-3 and 10-2.

Losing 10 draft picks and breaking in a new offensive coordinator are valid concerns, but this schedule catches LSU early in Kiffin's rebuild, and nine wins is the floor for this roster. In Elko we trust!

LSU over/under 8.5 wins

Over. Lane Kiffin arrives with the nation's top transfer portal class, headlined by Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt and Colorado left tackle Jordan Seaton. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker stayed, and his unit held six opponents to ten points or fewer last season.

Managing 59 newcomers is the risk, but Kiffin misses Georgia and Oklahoma, gets Texas A&M and Alabama at home and won double-digit games in four of his last five Ole Miss seasons.

Alabama over/under 8.5 wins

Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Ryan Williams (2) looks on during the first quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs during the 2025 SEC Championship game. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Under. The Tide return just five starters after losing 15, including 10 NFL draft picks, quarterback Ty Simpson and all five offensive linemen. Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are battling to replace Simpson behind a rebuilt front that averaged 3.4 yards per carry even with last year's group.

Kalen DeBoer is 20-8, but an offense that ranked 84th nationally with better personnel now faces a schedule USA Today calls one of the most demanding in the country, and 8-4 is the honest projection.

Texas over/under 9.5 wins

Over. Arch Manning closed 2025 with 11 touchdowns and one interception over the final five games of a 12-3 season. Steve Sarkisian loaded up around him with Auburn receiver Cam Coleman, running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers plus a rebuilt line, and Will Muschamp returned as defensive coordinator.

Sarkisian has won 10 or more games three straight years, and this is his most talented offense yet, so 10 wins is the expectation.

Georgia over/under 9.5 wins

Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Over. Gunner Stockton returns for year two of running an offense that went 9-0 when it reached 40 carries, and lead back Nate Frazier stayed after rushing for 947 yards. The defense brings back eight starters, and the Bulldogs leave the state of Georgia only four times all season.

Kirby Smart has won double-digit regular-season games five straight years, and a two-time defending SEC champion at 9.5 is the easiest over on the board.

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