Greg McElroy Backs 4 SEC Powerhouses to Win the National Championship

The SEC put five teams in the College Football Playoff last year and watched every one of them lose before the final. That is now three straight seasons without an SEC team playing for the crystal, with Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana carrying off the last three trophies.

On his Always College Football podcast, Greg McElroy sorted all 16 SEC teams into five tiers and reserved his top rung for the four programs he believes can actually finish the job. He highlighted Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma as title contenders.

As he put it, this is not a "can they make the playoff question. This is a can they win the whole thing?"

In Tier 2, which he believes are the conference's playoff contenders are Texas A&M, Alabama and LSU. Tennessee, South Carolina and Florida are in Tier 3.

Tier 4, teams McElroy views as bowl-eligible, is made up of Missouri, Auburn and Vanderbilt. In Tier 5, he placed Kentucky, Mississippi State and Arkansas at the bottom of the SEC.

Let's break down the four programs McElroy views as title contenders...

Arch Manning enters Year 2 as Texas Longhorns starter

Texas walked in as the preseason number one last year and never lived up to it, missing the playoffs entirely despite a third straight 10-win season.

McElroy still put them at the top of his SEC board, and his reasoning is hard to argue with. Arch Manning returns for a full year as the starter after closing 2025 on a heater, and Steve Sarkisian went shopping.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

He pulled the transfer portal's top receiver, Cam Coleman, out of Auburn to pair with Ryan Wingo, then added running back Hollywood Smothers from NC State.

My read is that the ceiling here is entirely about the offensive line, which broke down in both losses that mattered. Fix the trenches, and this is a title team. Leave it as is, and Texas repeats last year's frustration.

Georgia Bulldogs return Gunner Stockton and a loaded roster

Georgia is the team McElroy trusts most, and it comes down to continuity. Gunner Stockton is back for his second full year after throwing for 2,894 yards with 24 touchdowns and just five picks while running for 10 more scores.

The Bulldogs return a pile of starters off a defense that already smothers the run. What I want to see is more explosiveness.

Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) scrambles from Mississippi Rebels defensive end Princewill Umanmielen (1) in the third quarter during the 2026 Sugar Bowl. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Stockton managed games beautifully and rarely turned it over, but Georgia needs him to layer in some downfield strikes and needs its pass rush to climb from the 20 sacks it managed a year ago. The talent is stacked, as always.

As McElroy said, when Georgia loses a starter, the guy behind him is "probably going to be okay." Three straight years without a playoff win is the itch Kirby Smart has to scratch.

Ole Miss, Trinidad Chambliss chase another playoff

This is the pick that will raise eyebrows, but only for those who didn't take the Rebels seriously a year ago. Ole Miss lost Lane Kiffin to LSU, promoted Pete Golding and still reached the national semifinals.

Trinidad Chambliss, a former Division II transfer whose only other offer was Temple, won a court case for another year and enters 2026 as a genuine Heisman favorite after nearly 4,000 passing yards. Kewan Lacy is back too, after leading the SEC with 24 rushing touchdowns and racking up 1,567 yards.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, running back Kewan Lacy — Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) and running back Kewan Lacy (5) pose with the Sugar Bowl trophy after the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

McElroy said it plainly. "Ole Miss reloads. Ole Miss does not rebuild."

The receiver room turned over, and that is the real concern, but Golding poured his portal capital into the defense. I would not bet against the guy who already worked his magic last January.

Oklahoma Sooners lean on a smothering defense

McElroy is higher on Oklahoma than most, and I get it. The Sooners led the country in tackles for loss and piled up 45 sacks on the way to their first playoff bid since 2019. That defense returns seven starters, including four All-SEC picks.

The whole thing hinges on John Mateer, who battled a hand injury through half of last season and now gets a full offseason healthy.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the CFP National Playoff First Round. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As McElroy framed it, a defense this good "does not need a ridiculous amount of help." It just needs an offense that avoids the killer mistake, like last year's 23-6 loss against Texas, where they gave up three turnovers. Oklahoma was 5-0 entering that game and went on to lose two of their next three. The Sooners ranked 12th in the SEC at a -0.23 turnover margin per game.

If Mateer climbs back to the form that produced 44 total touchdowns two years ago or can continue to capture the magic from the Sooners' first few games before his injury, Oklahoma will be more than a playoff team.

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