Big Ten program predicted to part ways with $52 million college football coach

Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith, right, shakes hands with Michigan's head coach Sherrone Moore | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Coaching changes have occurred around the country in college football, but the Big Ten has seen surprisingly calm waters in that department. The Penn State opening is grabs plenty of attention, but otherwise, most schools have stayed committed to their leaders in 2025. Well, according to the latest development, another northern powerhouse could be looking for a new coach after the season.

Michigan State isn't too far into the Jonathan Smith era, but worry is surfacing that his tenure in East Lansing may end after just two seasons. Smith led a 5-7 campaign in year one last fall but has Sparty at just 3-8 and stumbling toward a winless 0-9 conference record if MSU can't find a way off the mat to beat Maryland at home this coming weekend. That's not the sort of results that earn extensions in the Big Ten.

Is State planning to fire him? Who's to say. But Smith's name has also popped up in a couple of coaching searches, jobs that would take him back out west. Of course, Smith was previously the head coach at Oregon State and led them to a 10-win season back in 2022. The Beavers' head coaching gig is back open after they fired Smith's replacement, Trent Bray, midway through his second year. Plus, Smith has been mentioned as an option at UCLA.

Whether he is even at candidate for the Bruins or would consider the UCLA job or a return to OSU, is a huge unknown. That's where Kalshi comes in handy. It's a predictive trading market offering odds on queries such as 'Who will be the UCLA coach in 2026?' or 'Will Jonathan Smith leave Michigan State before the end of December?' In regards to that second question, whether Smith will be in place at Michigan State beyond this winter, Kalshi has varying odds.

Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith and his 1,000-yard stare | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As of Monday morning, November the 24th, Kalshi has a three-pronged approach to this Jonathan Smith and Michigan State puzzle. First, they list just a 3% chance of Smith no longer being with Michigan State as of November the 30th, next Sunday. However, Kalshi does peg a 59% chance for separation between the Spartans and Smith before December the 15th.

That means either A.) Kalshi believes Smith is taking a new job, or B.) He's likely getting fired. The real debate is... which is more likely? Maybe both? As recently as late October, stories surfaced suggesting Smith was a real player at UCLA. An 8-15 record to date at Michigan State likely hasn't helped his cause over recent weeks, but Oregon State fans are also getting hopeful that a firing or worsened situation could grease the wheels for a grand return to Corvallis for Jonathan Smith.

Smith's removal would not be cheap for Michigan State, either. He signed a seven-year contract ahead of his first season, 2024, worth just under $53 million total. His buyout, if canned at the end of this season, is $32.5 million, roughly 85% of what remains on his total deal.