College Football Coaches on the Hot Seat Entering 2026, and Who Gets Fired

College football's coaching carousel never really stops turning, and the summer before kickoff is when the whispers get loudest. Buyouts get calculated, fan bases get restless, and every preseason projection becomes a referendum on job security.

More than 20 coaches enter 2026 with real scrutiny attached to their names, from a legendary program getting nervous to first-time head coaches fighting to survive a second or third season.

ACC

Mike Norvell, Florida State

Florida State head coach Mike Norvell watches players work during practice as the first home game approaches in a few weeks. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

What would a college football hot seat article be without the Florida State head coach?

Norvell enters his seventh season at Florida State as the Seminoles have just seven wins over the past two years, a stretch that has erased the momentum from their 13-1 ACC title run in 2023. Florida State was picked to finish 11th in the ACC, and Norvell will retake full play-calling duties in 2026 after stepping away from the role last season.

"I expect this year to be the best year of my life," Norvell said at ACC Spring Meetings.

His buyout sits above $50 million, which is why Florida State brought him back for one more year. That number keeps dropping every season, and a third straight disappointing year would make the financial case for moving on much easier to swallow.

Prediction: Norvell is fired during the 2026 season.

Bill Belichick, North Carolina

Belichick's first season at North Carolina ended 4-8 with a 2-6 mark in the ACC, and he turns 75 during his second year in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels open at TCU in Dublin before road trips to Clemson and Duke. Belichick has pointed to continuity as his main source of optimism.

"Most of our team was here all spring," he said. "It's a lot different than the situation we were in last year."

General manager Michael Lombardi was placed on administrative leave days before camp opened, adding an off-field distraction to an already difficult rebuild.

Prediction: Belichick keeps his job in 2026 regardless of record, given his hire was built as a long term project.

Bill O'Brien, Boston College

Boston College Eagles head coach Bill O'Brien walks off the field prior to the game against the Syracuse Orange at the JMA Wireless Dome. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

O'Brien is entering year three after a 2-10 finish in 2025, a season that saw Boston College rank 125th nationally in rushing offense. The Eagles bring in roughly 50 new players, including transfer quarterback Mason McKenzie from Division II Saginaw Valley State.

O'Brien has stated directly that his job security was never a question.

"No doubt," O'Brien said when asked if he considered leaving. "I have three years left on a five-year contract and I'm gonna work my butt off to try to get this thing right."

That contract language gives him some cover, but three years of decline at a program with modest expectations to begin with is a hard sell for a fan base and administration that already watched the team win two games.

Prediction: O'Brien is fired at the end of the 2026 season.

Dabo Swinney, Clemson

Swinney's Tigers finished 7-6 last season after entering the year ranked No. 4, marking Clemson's first season without at least eight wins since 2010. Clemson opens 2026 on the road against LSU.

Swinney has downplayed outside noise surrounding his roster.

"We're just a bunch of nobodies," Swinney said during preseason camp. "We'll see if anybody becomes somebody as we play some games."

His buyout is set at $57 million in 2026 with no offset language, meaning Clemson would owe the full amount even if he took another job.

Prediction: Swinney is not fired in 2026 regardless of outcome, given his buyout, legacy, and program control.

Dave Doeren, NC State

NC State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren looks on against Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Doeren enters his 14th season at NC State off a 7-5 finish and a public vote of confidence from athletic director Boo Corrigan. Unlike most names in this conversation, Doeren isn't fighting for his job. He's chasing his first ACC championship after years of finishing near the top of the conference without a title.

"I'm sick of being second," Doeren said at ACC Kickoff.

Quarterback CJ Bailey returns for a third season behind an offense that lost 10 players to the NFL Draft or free agency in April.

Prediction: Doeren is not fired in 2026 and isn't a realistic hot seat name. The administration's public support and his program building track record put him among the safer jobs in the conference.

Big 12

Cincinnati head coach Scott Satterfield speaks to reporters during Big 12 Conference Football Media Days at The Star. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati

Satterfield enters his fourth season at Cincinnati at 15-22 overall, though the Bearcats have improved their win total each of the past three years, from three wins to five to seven. Cincinnati reached its first bowl game under Satterfield last season before a five -game losing streak closed it out.

Satterfield has pointed to a full defensive overhaul as the program's biggest offseason move.

"I think that's one of the things that we needed to get better at defensively," Satterfield said at Big 12 Media Days, referencing the coordinator change.

Cincinnati opens the year against Boston College before a Big 12 slate that includes road trips to Texas Tech and Utah.

Prediction: Satterfield is not fired in 2026, given the program's steady year-over-year improvement under his tenure.

Deion Sanders, Colorado

Sanders enters his fourth season at Colorado off a 3-9 finish, his worst record since taking over the program, with a five-game losing streak to close the year and no road wins in Big 12 play. He missed extended time last year while battling bladder cancer, a fight he has since credited for some of the team's late-season struggles.

"It's already turned," Sanders said at Big 12 Media Days. "You just ain't seen the fruit. It's already there."

Colorado overhauled much of its roster through the transfer portal, targeting proven production rather than the recruiting upside that defined his earlier classes. Former athletic director Rick George publicly shut down hot seat speculation before departing the role, though the pressure has resurfaced since.

Prediction: Sanders is not fired, given his contract, national profile, and the program's continued investment in the rebuild.

Lance Leipold, Kansas

Kansas head coach Lance Leipold looks on during fall camp practice on Aug. 4, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Leipold enters his sixth season at Kansas off back-to-back 5-7 finishes, a step back after a nine-win 2023 season. Leipold has taken direct ownership of the recent stretch.

"We've had some opportunities, probably well documented, some close losses that easily put us that we could be sitting up here today talking about four consecutive bowl games," Leipold said. "And where does it fall? It falls on the head coach to do that."

ESPN's Football Power Index gives Kansas a 58 percent chance of reaching six wins.

Prediction: Leipold is not fired in 2026, given his track record of rebuilding the program from one of the sport's worst jobs.

Big Ten

Mike Locksley, Maryland

Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley walks the sidelines during the first half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at SECU Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Locksley enters his eighth season in College Park after back-to-back 4-8 finishes, both with a 1-8 record in Big Ten play. Athletic director Jim Smith told ESPN that Maryland plans to keep Locksley and boost NIL support heading into 2026. Locksley has pushed back on the idea that the record tells the full story.

"This is a team that we're a drive away from being seven wins as opposed to four," Locksley said.

Quarterback Malik Washington returns after starting all 12 games as a true freshman.

Prediction: Locksley keeps his job in 2026, with the administration already committed to another season regardless of the outcome.

Lincoln Riley, USC

Riley enters his fifth season at USC off a nine-win 2025 campaign, with the nation's No. 1 recruiting class arriving in 2026. USC finished 13th nationally in total offense last season, and Riley has stopped hedging about the program's readiness.

"That's not a hope or a wish. Those are facts," Riley said at Big Ten Media Days, pointing to the staff and talent now in place.

USC's roughly $80 million buyout has been cited as a major reason the seat has stayed cooler than the results alone might suggest.

Prediction: Riley is not fired, given the buyout size and the roster's trajectory.

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin

Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is shown during practice Thursday, August 13, 2026 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Fickell enters his fourth season at Wisconsin off a 4-8 finish, the program's worst season since 1990, and a three-year record of 17-21 that includes just 10-17 in Big Ten play. Athletic director Chris McIntosh announced in November that Fickell would return, with the school pledging increased investment in the roster. Fickell has been direct about the stakes.

"The last two years for us have not been up to the standard, and I'm not shying away from that," Fickell said at Big Ten Media Days.

Wisconsin opens the season against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, and the rest of the schedule is deliberately lighter than years past, with Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Washington all off the slate.

Prediction: Fickell is fired during the 2026 season.

Matt Rhule, Nebraska

Rhule enters his fourth season at Nebraska off back-to-back 7-6 finishes, a step forward from the 19-37 record he inherited but still short of the program's own bowl standard. Nebraska received a two-year contract extension for Rhule last October, but national analysts still flag him as one of the Big Ten's hotter seats, given the fan base's growing impatience.

"We didn't come to Nebraska to go 7-6. We have to take a step this year," Rhule said at Big Ten Media Days.

The Huskers face three College Football Playoff participants from a season ago, a jump from a 2025 schedule that included none.

Prediction: Rhule is not fired in 2026, protected by his extension, but a third straight 7-6 season would intensify the pressure heading into 2027.

SEC

Shane Beamer, South Carolina

South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Shane Beamer reacts to a play against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Beamer enters his sixth season in Columbia off a 4-8 finish, a stunning collapse for a team that opened 2025 ranked No. 13 nationally. Athletic director Jeremiah Donati confirmed in November that Beamer would return for 2026. The need for clarification is concerning.

Beamer has leaned on the return of experienced players, including quarterback LaNorris Sellers, as reason for confidence.

"This year, we won't be picked very high. I get that," Beamer said at SEC Media Days. "We have the same players that we did last year when you picked us high, and they're another year older."

South Carolina brought in new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles this offseason.

Prediction: Beamer is not fired, protected by his extension through 2030 and the administration's public support.

Brent Venables, Oklahoma

Venables enters his fifth season at Oklahoma off a 10-3 campaign that ended with a first-round College Football Playoff loss to Alabama, a marked turnaround from consecutive 6-7 seasons in his first three years. Oklahoma opens 2026 against UTEP before a stretch that includes road trips to Michigan and Georgia within the first five games.

A difficult schedule is why Venables is on this list. There's a strong possibility this year will be a letdown. Though, Venables has pointed to the leadership on this year's roster as a sign of progress.

"The depth of the leadership we have in our locker room right now is as good as we've had, better than we've probably had here in the five years at Oklahoma," Venables said at SEC Media Days.

Quarterback John Mateer returns behind a defense that ranked third nationally against the run.

Prediction: Venables is not fired, with last season's Playoff berth having already reset expectations in his favor.

Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State

Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby reacts to a play against the Missouri Tigers during the first half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Lebby enters his third season at Mississippi State at 7-18 overall and 1-15 in SEC play, though last year's team lost several one -score games late, including collapses against Texas and Tennessee.

Lebby has pointed to roster retention as his top reason for optimism.

"Our roster is in a much better place than it's been the last two seasons," Lebby said at SEC Media Days.

SEC Network's Paul Finebaum pushed back on the idea that Lebby is in serious danger, estimating that around six wins would keep the administration supportive. Quarterback Kamario Taylor takes over as the full-time starter in 2026, but a 1-15 conference record over two years is close to the floor for what an SEC program will tolerate.

Prediction: Lebby is fired by the end of the 2026 season.

Group of Six

Dell McGee, Georgia State

Georgia State Panthers head coach Dell McGee looks on during warm ups prior to the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

McGee enters his third season at Georgia State off a 1-11 finish that included an 0-8 mark in Sun Belt play, a steep decline from the 7-6 bowl team he inherited in 2024. Georgia State opens the year at home against North Carolina A&T.

McGee has pointed to the energy of preseason camp as an early sign of progress.

"Guys had great energy, great enthusiasm," McGee said. "We've still got a long way to go but definitely encouraged by how we started today."

McGee spent 22 years as an assistant, including eight seasons on Kirby Smart's staff at Georgia, before taking his first head coaching job.

Prediction: McGee is fired in 2026.

Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech

Cumbie enters his fifth season at Louisiana Tech off an 8-5 finish and an Independence Bowl win, a breakthrough after opening his tenure with consecutive 3-9 seasons. Louisiana Tech moves from Conference USA to the Sun Belt in 2026, adding a tougher conference schedule alongside non-conference road trips to LSU and Baylor.

Cumbie carried the sport's hottest seat rating into last season and reversed the outlook by finishing fourth in Conference USA.

Quarterback Blake Baker, who started seven games before tearing his ACL, is expected back for the season opener.

Prediction: Cumbie is not fired in 2026, having already proven he can turn around a tenure that once carried the hottest seat rating in the country.

Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee

MTSU's coach Derek Mason talks to players after MTSU’s football practice on Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Mason enters his third season at Middle Tennessee at 6-18, though three of last year's nine losses came by three points or fewer. Athletic director Chris Massaro confirmed Mason's return for 2026 after the Blue Raiders snapped a seven-game losing streak to close the season.

"He remains confident that this team is making meaningful progress and is close to translating that progress into better on field results," Massaro said.

Quarterback Roman Gagliano finished the season with two straight wins, throwing for over 1,000 yards without an interception in that stretch.

Prediction: Mason is fired.

Scotty Walden, UTEP

Walden enters his third season at UTEP at 5-19, including a 2-10 finish in 2025 that included just one win over an FBS opponent. UTEP makes the jump from Conference USA to the Mountain West in 2026, adding a tougher schedule to a rebuild that has already replaced most of the roster.

Walden has focused fall camp messaging on effort and detail rather than results.

"It's just a lack of effort, lack of detail, not ready to practice," Walden said, reflecting on an uneven camp session. "The captains handled it."

UTEP opens the season on the road against Oklahoma, and the roster turnover leaves little continuity to fall back on if the losses pile up early.

Prediction: Walden is fired during the 2026 season.

Jay Sawvel, Wyoming

Wyoming Cowboys head coach Jay Sawvel walks the field before the game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Sawvel enters his third season at Wyoming at 7-17, having missed bowl eligibility in both years since replacing the retired Craig Bohl. Wyoming's offense ranked 131st nationally in scoring last season, prompting a coordinator change heading into 2026.

Sawvel has pushed back on the outside noise surrounding his tenure.

"I can't control outside influences," Sawvel said following a loss to Nevada that eliminated Wyoming from bowl contention.

The Cowboys enter a reshaped Mountain West with Boise State, Fresno State, and other longtime contenders gone.

Prediction: Sawvel is fired in 2026.

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