AP Top 25 Teams That Could Fall Out of the College Football Rankings Fast

College football's preseason AP Top 25 poll will not survive September, let alone Weeks 0 and 1, unscathed. Most teams won't remain in the poll by season's end, and their schedules explain why.

Seven teams in this year's poll begin the year against opponents that can beat them, and several of those teams sit close enough to the bottom that one poor Saturday performance ends their poll stay. For teams closer to the middle, even a loss plus a shaky win could do enough damage to have their names appearing in the dreaded "others receiving votes" list.

These are the seven programs most likely to disappear from the rankings before we turn the calendar to October. Yes, we start with the teams at the bottom, but the picks get more interesting the further we go.

No. 25 Missouri

Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz prior to a game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Stop the presses! I know the Tigers occupy the last spot in the poll, and voters will replace them first even without a loss.

The Tigers travel to Kansas on Friday, Sept. 11, in the Border Showdown rivalry. So early added stakes to start the year. A Friday night standalone game means every voter watches it.

Two weeks later, Missouri travels to Mississippi State, another road game in a stadium where the Tigers get no benefit of the doubt.

One loss drops a No. 25 team out immediately. Even an unimpressive win against an underdog could be enough to lose their spot. There is no cushion at the back of the poll and no signature win available in September to build one. Missouri needs to leave Lawrence unbeaten to still be ranked on Oct. 1.

No. 24 Louisville

Louisville’s Jeff Brohm coaches in the Spring Football game | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

You may be asking, "Are we just counting down from No. 25?" No, I promise. These teams are on the list because they don't start the year with cupcakes like most other college football programs.

Louisville drew the hardest opening month of any team ranked below the top 20. The Cardinals face Ole Miss in Nashville on Sept. 6 in the Music City Kickoff, then host SMU on Sept. 19. Two ranked opponents in the first three games are a lot for a team sitting at No. 24.

The neutral site opener works against Jeff Brohm's group. Louisville gets no home crowd and no chance to ease a new lineup into the season. Ole Miss brings back quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, so the Cardinals must slow one of the better offenses in the SEC in Week 1. Then SMU arrives at L&N Stadium with a road win already possible and a ranking of its own to defend.

Louisville can go 1-2 and still be a decent football team. But it won't still be a ranked if that's the case.

No. 23 Houston

Houston Cougars head coach Willie Fritz on the sidelines coaching against the West Virginia Mountaineers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Now you're getting angry. Look, we can exclude these bottom-ranked teams because their schedules are worth discussing.

Houston is the least tested team in this group and the one facing a sharp jump in competition. The Cougars travel to Texas Tech on Friday, Sept. 18. Texas Tech is ranked No. 12 and won the Big 12 last season. Houston has to go to Lubbock and win to stay in the poll.

In a Friday night matchup, there is no other game to hide behind and no way for voters to file the result away as a footnote. Willie Fritz's team will be judged on that single trip.

A No. 23 team that loses in Lubbock will be exiting the Top 25.

No. 22 Iowa

Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Iowa gets the two games that decide its ranking inside a three-week window. Iowa State comes to Kinnick Stadium on Sept. 12 for the Cy-Hawk game, then the Hawkeyes travel to Michigan on Sept. 26. That is one rivalry game against a Big 12 opponent that has beaten Iowa recently, followed by a trip to Ann Arbor.

The risk for Kirk Ferentz's team runs deeper than the losses. Iowa wins by scoring in the twenties and playing defense. Voters will not reward a team ranked No. 22 after a 17-13 win over Northern Iowa, and they could punish a 10-point loss to Iowa State harshly. The Hawkeyes went 9-4 last season with four losses by a combined 15 points. Close games cut both ways in the polls.

A win paired even with one ugly performance could put Iowa on the outside looking in.

No. 20 Tennessee

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel during the Orange and White game at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Tennessee travels to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12 for a prime-time game on ESPN, then hosts Texas on Sept. 26. Both games are losable, and the Volunteers sit at No. 20 with almost no room to absorb either loss.

The Atlanta trip is dangerous. Georgia Tech has recruited well, plays at home, and gets Tennessee before the Vols have solved anything on offense. The Volunteers will be breaking in a new starting QB, whether that's Faizon Brandon or George McIntyre. A loss there would be treated as a bad loss, not a competitive one.

Then Texas arrives in Knoxville two weeks later. The Longhorns lost their opener to Ohio State last season and responded by getting better all year.

At No. 20, Tennessee needs to win in Atlanta and then look good doing it. Making it look like an equal fight against the Longhorns could boost the Vols' chances of surviving September still in the ranks.

No. 11 LSU

Louisiana State Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin looks on prior to the game against the Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

LSU has the most punishing September in the country, and it belongs to a coach in his first season in Baton Rouge.

Clemson visits on Sept. 5. LSU then goes to Ole Miss on Sept. 19, where Lane Kiffin returns to the program he left. Texas A&M comes to Tiger Stadium a week later. Three games against likely ranked opponents inside of four weeks.

The Ole Miss trip is where this could fall apart. Kiffin walks into a hostile stadium against the team he abandoned. LSU is No. 11, so a single loss keeps it ranked. Two losses by October will not.

LSU could be 1-3 with an offense still learning a new system, and that outcome is more likely than the preseason ranking suggests. To make matters worse, LSU is on my most overrated teams in the AP Top 25 list.

No. 10 Oklahoma

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma is the one top-10 team that can lose twice before October. The Sooners go to Michigan on Sept. 12, then to Georgia on Sept. 26. Two road games against ranked opponents in a three-week span, and neither is a coin flip in Oklahoma's favor.

The polls will be sympathetic, but if either of these games is a blowout or the Sooners look sloppy, they could be close to the edge.

Michigan wants revenge for last year's loss in Norman and gets this one at home under Kyle Whittingham. Bryce Underwood faces John Mateer again with a better roster around him. Two weeks later, Oklahoma walks into Athens against a Georgia team that doesn't lose home games in September.

Brent Venables could also end up in the hot seat if the Sooners endure a 0-2 start against those two opponents. Oklahoma sits at No. 10, right where two losses in September may be enough a team all the way out of the poll.

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