Josh Pate lowers temperature on USF hype in Week 3

USF’s hot streak meets a reality check against Miami’s power.

South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown (17) is looking to lead the Bulls over the Miami Hurricanes to their third straight win over a ranked opponent. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Josh Pate praised South Florida’s rise but said the Bulls’ momentum may not carry over against No. 5 Miami. During Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show, Pate warned that while coach Alex Golesh’s team has been one of the sport’s best stories, the Week 3 matchup could be different.

The Bulls are coming off ranked wins over Boise State and Florida. They now face their toughest test yet in a Hurricanes team that has already defeated Notre Dame and is unbeaten at 2-0. Miami has dominated the series, winning six of seven meetings, including last season’s 50-15 blowout in Tampa.

“Next up, USF at Miami. I don’t think this one’s going to happen. I didn’t say can’t. I don’t think it’s going to happen,” Pate said. “Miami is laying 17.5 points at home against South Florida. All the potential things that could have caused the upset here are gone. Namely, USF won last week. So, you’re not sneaking up on anybody.”

Pate Says Sustaining Elite Play Will Be Difficult For USF

USF quarterback Byrum Brown has yet to throw an interception this season. He extended his program-record streak to 240 attempts without a pick in last week’s win over Florida. But Pate stressed that playing at peak level three weeks in a row is rare.

“USF, they’re in a double-down spot. Very rarely do college football teams play at an A level a third week in a row,” Pate said.

South Florida Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown (17) has passed for 473 yards and one touchdown and added 109 rushing yards and two scores. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

“Boise win, at Florida win. Now you’re going to Miami, the best of all those teams so far. Think about the level you have to play at with Miami being fully aware of you and fully prepared for you.”

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been sharp. The former Georgia starter leads the ACC in completion percentage at 77.8% and threw for 267 yards with two touchdowns in last week’s win over Bethune-Cookman. Pate noted the Hurricanes also hold a “significant line of scrimmage advantage both ways.”

Golesh’s Program Has Earned Respect But Faces Uphill Battle

Pate credited Golesh for building a team that can keep games close against top competition. “USF has modeled themselves as an organization that can get these kinds of games to the fourth quarter,” he said.

“The reason why I’m hesitant to circle this as a big upset alert game is because everyone’s aware of that now. And I think athletically and situationally, it doesn’t set up well for USF.”

South Florida Bulls head coach Alex Golesh is one of the most talked-about coaches in college football to start the 2025 season. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Miami’s defense has improved under new coordinator Corey Heatherman, holding opponents to 13.5 points per game. USF has leaned on strong third-quarter adjustments, outscoring opponents 23-0 in the third frame this season. Both teams are also tied for eighth nationally with a plus-4 turnover margin, making ball security a likely factor Saturday.

Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.