Kirk Herbstreit reveals why Oklahoma will beat Auburn on Saturday

College GameDay analyst Kirk Herbstreit points out statistical oddity that favors Oklahoma over Auburn in Week 4 SEC showdown

Kirk Herbstreit is on stage at ESPN College GameDay | Steve Sisney/For The Oklahoman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN College GameDay analyst Kirk Herbstreit gave his pick in the Oklahoma vs. Auburn matchup a little bit early in the broadcast, citing one key area where the edge will be gained: turnovers.

Herbstreit explained that while the new quarterback-offensive coordinator combination has won a lot of headlines for the Sooners (and Herbstreit even called Mateer the story of the season), Brent Venables knows his way around a defense and that side of the football is also a huge reason for early success in 2025.

"Keep in mind, Oklahoma, talking a lot about Mateer, Brent Venables is a defensive-minded head coach, one of the best in the business," Herbstreit asserted. "You know, they will not have R. Mason Thomas for the first half, targeting last week in the second half, so that's a big loss," he added.

But there will be an addition in the takeaways department for this Sooner defense, argues Herbstreit, who pointed out that Oklahoma has yet to force a turnover this season.

"The other thing is this Oklahoma team has not created a turnover in three games, one of the few teams in the entire country," Herbstreit revealed. "I think that changes today. I think that'll be a big reason they win this game today."

As Herbie noted, Brent Venables coaches a good defense and Oklahoma has performed strong on that side of the football, but randomly, hasn't benefited from a turnover. If you've ever read Phil Steele's biblical preseason magazines, you know well that turnover margin has a funny way of evening out over the years.

For a power conference team, three games without forcing a turnover is rare, no matter how bad you are; because inevitably, college football offenses will hand the ball away. So Oklahoma's turnovers are coming at some point, perhaps an avalanche of them help secure a second huge home victory and this time in OU's SEC opener.

The Tigers and Sooners kick off at 3:30 PM ET in front of what's sure to be a sold-out crowd.

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